Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items
Previous Archive
08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Moshoeshoe film screened at UFS as part of transformation programme
2004-10-14

A ground-breaking documentary film on the life and legacy of King Moshoeshoe I, the founder of the Basotho nation, will be screened at the University of the Free State (UFS) tonight (Wednesday 13 October 2004) at 19:00.

Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS, prof. Frederick Fourie, said the UFS commissioned the documentary as a practical demonstration of the university’s commitment to the continued transformation of the campus and the creation of a new inclusive institutional culture for all staff and students.

It is part of a larger UFS project to honour the Moshoeshoe legacy of nation-building and reconciliation and to explore his role as a model of African leadership.

The documentary tells the life story of the legendary king, with emphasis on his remarkable leadership skills, his extraordinary talent for diplomacy and conflict resolution and his visionary commitment to creating a new nation from a fragmented society.

Almost all the filming was done on or around Moshoeshoe’s mountain stronghold, Thaba Bosiu.

The last part of the documentary explores the lessons for African leadership to be learnt from Moshoeshoe. The hour-long documentary film was produced by the well-known journalist Mr Max du Preez and was commissioned by the UFS as part of its centenary celebrations.

“Through this documentary film about King Moshoeshoe, the UFS commits itself to developing a shared appreciation of the history of this country,” said prof. Fourie.

“King Moshoeshoe was a great African statesman and leader. He was born in this region of the country, but his influence and legacy extends way beyond the borders of the Free State, Lesotho and even way beyond the borders of South Africa,” said prof. Fourie.

As part of the larger project, the UFS is investigating a possible annual Moshoeshoe memorial lecture that will focus on African leadership, nation-building and reconciliation, possible PhD-level research into the life and legacy of King Moshoeshoe and a literary anthology including prose and poetry.

“We must gain a deeper understanding of what really happened during his reign as king. Therefore the University of the Free State will encourage and support further research into the history, politics and sociology of the Moshoeshoe period, including his leadership style,” said prof. Fourie.

According to prof. Fourie the Moshoeshoe project will enable the UFS to give real meaning to respect for the diversity of our languages and cultures, and the unity South Africans seek to build as a democratic nation through such diversity.

According to the producer of the documentary, journalist Mr Max du Preez, the UFS deserves credit for recognising this extraordinary man and for financing this important documentary.

Du Preez said: “It was about time that South Africa rediscovered Moshoeshoe. Colonialist and Afrikaner Nationalist historians have painted him as a sly, untrustworthy and weak leader. Most historians have preferred to glorify leaders in South Africa’s past who were aggressors and conquerors. In the process most present-day South Africans came to regard Moshoeshoe as a minor tribal figure.”

“Yet this was the man who broke the cycle of violence, famine and suffering during the traumatic time in central South Africa in the early 1800s. During the entire 19th century, Moshoeshoe was virtually the only leader in South Africa who did not answer violence with violence, who did not set forth to conquer other groups and expand his land,” said Mr du Preez.

“I have no doubt that the stability that the Free State region has enjoyed over more than a century was largely due to Moshoeshoe’s leadership and vision. He can quite rightly be called “The Nelson Mandela of the 19th Century,” Mr du Preez added.

Explaining the title of the documentary film, Mr du Preez said: “We decided to call the documentary “The Reniassance King” because whichever way one looks at it, Moshoeshoe symbolised everything behind the concept of an African Renaissance.”

“He was progressive, just and fair; he deeply respected human life and dignity (we would nowadays call it human rights); he embraced modernity and technology without ever undermining his own people’s culture or natural wisdom; he never allowed European or Western influence to overwhelm him, make him insecure or take away his pride as an African,” said Mr du Preez.

“Moshoeshoe was the best of Africa. If only contemporary African leaders would follow his example of what African leadership should be,” Mr du Preez said.

Among the interviewees in the film were Lesotho’s most prominent historian, Dr LBBJ Machobane, the head of the UFS’s Department of History, prof. Leo Barnard, Moshoeshoe expert and Gauteng educationist Dr Peter Seboni, Lesotho author and historian Martin Lelimo and Chief Seeiso Bereng Seeiso, Principal Chief of Matsieng and direct descendant of the first King of the Basotho.

The documentary film on King Moshoeshoe will be screened on SABC 2 on Thursday 4 November 2004.
 

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept