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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Premiere of the documentary on King Moshoeshoe - Address by the Rector
2004-10-14

Address by the rector and vice-chancellor of the University of the Free State, prof Frederick Fourie, at the premiere of the documentary on King Moshoeshoe, Wednesday 13 October 2004

It is indeed a privilege to welcome you at this key event in the Centenary celebrations of the University of the Free State.

We are simultaneously celebrating 100 years of scholarship with 10 years of democracy

Today is a very important day with great significance for the University. This Centenary is not merely a celebration of an institution of a certain age. It is a key event in this particular phase of our history, in our transformation as an institution of higher learning, in taking the creation of a high-quality, equitable, non-racial, non-sexist, multicultural and multilingual university seriously.

This is about building something new out of the old, of creating new institutional cultures and values from diverse traditions.

It is about learning together - as an higher education institution - about who we are where we come from – to decide where we are going.

It is about merging the age-old tradition of the university, of the academic gown, with the Basotho blanket, the symbol of community engagement.

Then why is it important that we remember Moshoeshoe, where does he fit into our history?

In the Free State province, where large numbers of Basotho and Afrikaners (and others) now live together, a new post-apartheid society is being built in the 21st century.

The challenge is similar to that faced by Moshoeshoe 150 years ago. As you will see tonight, he did a remarkable thing in forging a new nation out of a fragmented society. He also created a remarkable spirit of reconciliation and a remarkable style of leadership.

Not all people in South Africa know the history of Moshoeshoe. Many Basotho – but not all – are well versed in the history of Moshoeshoe, and his name is honoured in many a street, town and township. Many white people know very little of him, or have a very constrained or even biased view of his role and legacy. In Africa and the world, he his much less known than, for instance, Shaka. (In Lesotho, obviously, he is widely recognised and praised.)

We already benefit from his legacy: the people of the Free State share a tradition of moderation and reconciliation rather than one of aggression and domination.

With Moshoeshoe, together with Afrikaner leaders and reconciliators such as President MT Steyn and Christiaan de Wet, we have much to be thankful for.

Our challenge is take this legacy further: to forge a new society in which different cultural, language and racial groups – Basotho, Afrikaners and others – will all feel truly at home.

Bit by bit, on school grounds, on university campuses, in each town and city, people must shape the values and principles that will mould this new non-racial, multicultural and multilingual society.

A shared sense of history, shared stories and shared heroes are important elements in such a process.

Through this documentary film about King Moshoeshoe, the UFS commits itself to developing a shared appreciation of the history of this country and to the establishment of the Free State Province as a model of reconciliation and nation-building.

Moshoeshoe is also a strong common element, and binding factor, in the relationship between South Africa / the Free State, and its neighbour, Lesotho.

For the University of the Free State this also is an integral part of real transformation – of creating a new unity amidst our diversity.

Transformation has so many aspects: whilst the composition of our student and staff populations have been changing, many other things change at the same time: new curricula, new research, new community service learning projects.

In also includes creation of new values, new (shared) histories, new (shared) heroes.

It includes the incorporation of the Qwaqwa campus, which serves a region where so many of the children of Moshoeshoe live, including her majesty Queen Mopeli.

We see in Moshoeshoe a model of African leadership – of reconciliation and nation-building – that can have a significant impact in South Africa and Africa as a whole.

We also find in the legacy of King Moshoeshoe the possibility of an “founding philosophy”, or “defining philosophy”, for the African renaissance.

To develop this philosophy, we must gain a deeper understanding of what really happened there, of his role, of his leadership.

Therefore the University of the Free State will encourage and support further research into the history, politics and sociology of the Moshoeshoe period, including his leadership style.

We hope to do this in partnership with National University of Lesotho.

The Moshoeshoe documentary is one element of a long-term project of the UFS. The other elements of the project that we are investigating are possible PhD-level research; a possible annual Moshoeshoe memorial lecture on African leadership; and then possible schools projects and other ways and symbols of honouring him.

It is my sincere wish that all communities of the Free State and of South Africa will be able to identify with the central themes of this documentary, and develop a shared appreciation for leaders such as King Moshoeshoe and the legacy of peace, reconciliation and nation-building that they have left us.

Prof. Frederick Fourie
Rector and Vice-Chancellor
University of the Free State
13 October 2004.

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