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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Nanotechnology breakthrough at UFS
2010-08-19

 Ph.D students, Chantel Swart and Ntsoaki Leeuw


Scientists at the University of the Free State (UFS) made an important breakthrough in the use of nanotechnology in medical and biological research. The UFS team’s research has been accepted for publication by the internationally accredited Canadian Journal of Microbiology.

The UFS study dissected yeast cells exposed to over-used cooking oil by peeling microscopically thin layers off the yeast cells through the use of nanotechnology.

The yeast cells were enlarged thousands of times to study what was going on inside the cells, whilst at the same time establishing the chemical elements the cells are composed of. This was done by making microscopically small surgical incisions into the cell walls.

This groundbreaking research opens up a host of new uses for nanotechnology, as it was the first study ever in which biological cells were surgically manipulated and at the same time elemental analysis performed through nanotechnology. According to Prof. Lodewyk Kock, head of the Division Lipid Biotechnology at the UFS, the study has far reaching implications for biological and medical research.

The research was the result of collaboration between the Department of Microbial, Biochemical and Food Biotechnology, the Department of Physics (under the leadership of Prof. Hendrik Swart) and the Centre for Microscopy (under the leadership of Prof.Pieter van Wyk).

Two Ph.D. students, Chantel Swart and Ntsoaki Leeuw, overseen by professors Kock and Van Wyk, managed to successfully prepare yeast that was exposed to over-used cooking oil (used for deep frying of food) for this first ever method of nanotechnological research.

According to Prof. Kock, a single yeast cell is approximately 5 micrometres long. “A micrometre is one millionth of a metre – in laymen’s terms, even less than the diameter of a single hair – and completely invisible to the human eye.”

Through the use of nanotechnology, the chemical composition of the surface of the yeast cells could be established by making a surgical incision into the surface. The cells could be peeled off in layers of approximately three (3) nanometres at a time to establish the effect of the oil on the yeast cell’s composition. A nanometre is one thousandth of a micrometre.

Each cell was enlarged by between 40 000 and 50 000 times. This was done by using the Department of Physics’ PHI700 Scanning Auger Nanoprobe linked to a Scanning Electron Microscope and Argon-etching. Under the guidance of Prof. Swart, Mss. Swart en Leeuw could dissect the surfaces of yeast cells exposed to over-used cooking oil. 

The study noted wart like outgrowths - some only a few nanometres in diameter – on the cell surfaces. Research concluded that these outgrowths were caused by the oil. The exposure to the oil also drastically hampered the growth of the yeast cells. (See figure 1)  

Researchers worldwide have warned about the over-usage of cooking oil for deep frying of food, as it can be linked to the cause of diseases like cancer. The over-usage of cooking oil in the preparation of food is therefore strictly regulated by laws worldwide.

The UFS-research doesn’t only show that over-used cooking oil is harmful to micro-organisms like yeast, but also suggests how nanotechnology can be used in biological and medical research on, amongst others, cancer cells.

 

Figure 1. Yeast cells exposed to over-used cooking oil. Wart like protuberances/ outgrowths (WP) is clearly visible on the surfaces of the elongated yeast cells. With the use of nanotechnology, it is possible to peel off the warts – some with a diameter of only a few nanometres – in layers only a few nanometres thick. At the same time, the 3D-structure of the warts as well as its chemical composition can be established.  

Media Release
Issued by: Mangaliso Radebe
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2828
Cell: 078 460 3320
E-mail: radebemt@ufs.ac.za  
18 August 2010
 

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