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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS takes 70 first-year students to the USA

2010-08-20

Mr Rudi Buys (middle, with tie) with some of the students selected for the F1 Programme
Photo: Gerhard Louw

The University of the Free State (UFS) has announced the names of the first ever group of 70 first-year students that will travel to the United States of America (USA) as part of the university’s Student Leadership Development Programme.

This group of students will spend two weeks at universities in the USA to experience student life and learn about leadership and diversity at these universities.

“This is a first for not only the UFS, but also for South Africa and we are incredibly proud. The programme is unique to any other student leadership development programme in the country. We are leading the way and are taking students to live and learn amongst students at various universities across the USA,” said Mr Rudi Buys, Dean of Student Affairs at the UFS.

The programme was one of the goals of Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS, which he aimed to realise when he was appointed by the UFS in 2009.

“With the programme we want to develop participants’ thinking and capacity to lead in the contexts of diversity and change and we hope to direct them to programmes leading change in student life in general upon their return,” Mr Buys said.

The 70 students will leave for the USA on 22 September 2010. After spending some time there and learning more about their American peers’ lives and culture, they will return to the UFS on 7 October 2010.

“We took great care in selecting the 70 participants. They are representative of all our students, as well as students from our Qwaqwa Campus,” said Mr Buys.

A rigorous selection process was followed, which focused on the students’ academic excellence, their participation in student- and residence-life programmes and their interest in growing in the areas of, amongst others, leadership, diversity and citizenship. Each candidate had to undergo a pre-selection process, followed by a panel interview consisting of staff from various faculties and divisions at the UFS.

The students will stay in groups of about ten at the various universities, which include universities such as Cornell University, New York University, the University of Massachusetts, the Appalachian State University and Virginia Polytechnic University. “These universities will provide our students with accommodation and will present various academic and cultural programmes which our students will participate in and learn from,” said Mr Buys.

“We have also put a programme in place to prepare our students thoroughly for the trip. Because some of them have never travelled on an aeroplane, let alone travelled to a foreign country, we have made arrangements with the Department of Home Affairs for assistance with travel documentation, as well as special arrangements with the USA Embassy for assistance with visas. They will also be attending workshops focusing on, amongst others, research, leadership and diversity before their departure on 22 September 2010.

“Upon their arrival in the USA the group of students will firstly be taken to Washington DC where they will be briefed about American customs, etc. From there they will be placed at the various universities,” said Mr Buys.

Upon their return the students must be involved in student-life programmes on campus, establish volunteer programmes and initiate and establish mentoring programmes for their fellow students. “We want them to give back what they have learnt and experienced,” said Mr Buys.

“We are planning on implementing the Student Leadership Development Programme as an annual programme and are looking forward to this incredible programme through which this group of first-year students will have the opportunity of a lifetime to be true ambassadors of South Africa and, in particular, the UFS, as they leave for the USA,” he said.

Media Release:
Mangaliso Radebe
Assistant Director: Media Liaison
Tel: 051 401 2828
Cell: 078 460 3320
E-mail: radebemt@ufs.ac.za
20 August 2010

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