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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS on the right track with transformation - Fulbright scholars

2010-08-27

Pictured from the left, are: Dr Wilmore-Schaeffer, Rev. Dr Streets and Ms Leah Naidoo (Senior Administrator of the Institute).
Photo: Mangaliso Radebe

“I think the university is not only on the right track but can really become a model for how to negotiate certain difficult processes, such as transformation, within a short period of time. I think it can become a model, not just for other universities, but also for the world.”

This was said by Dr Rozetta Wilmore-Schaeffer, who together with Rev. Dr Frederick J. Streets, recently worked with the International Institute for Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice at the University of the Free State (UFS) as Fulbright specialists. They helped the institute come up with ideas in terms of making the changes that are necessary for the transformation of the university.

“There is a great deal that has already been done despite the sense of urgency and impatience, and I think there is a great deal more to be done,” said Dr Wilmore-Schaeffer.

“I think this sense of urgency comes from those who are involved in the process of looking at the destination, the place that they want to be at, and feeling that they are very far from it.”

During their visit here the two had numerous conversations with both staff members and students.

“I have been most impressed by the students who I think are ready to make changes in many different ways – I am talking about students of all racial groups and gender. The fact that they are referring to transformation as ‘their struggle’ shows that they are prepared to make changes,” said Dr Wilmore-Schaeffer.
She, however, cautioned that there were those who were still against transformation taking place at the university.

“I think there is still some resistance from some quarters on both sides of the fence and I would expect that at this point in time. I think what is really hopeful is that there are so many students who are ready to make the changes, who are making the changes, who are struggling with issues around making the changes; and I think that is really the hope for the university and the hope for the future,” she said.

“The resistance is complex,” added Rev. Dr Streets. “It is around a fear for the future, the loss of identity on the part of both black and white students, and the desire for cultural continuity amongst white students as well as amongst a variety of ethnic black students.

“The resistance is about learning that you are not the only kid on the block anymore and how you then overcome the feeling of realising that you are not the dominant person anymore and that your culture is not the dominant culture anymore.”

They have given a preliminary report of their findings to the Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS, Prof. Jonathan Jansen, which will be followed by a more detailed report later on.

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