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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Ensure your place at the UFS

2010-10-27

The University of the Free State (UFS) appeals to all prospective South African students who want to come and study at the UFS in 2011 to submit their applications no later than Tuesday, 30 November 2010.

The UFS is aware of the fact that learners will not have received their final Grade 12 results by Tuesday, 30 November 2010; therefore provisional admission will be granted based on learners’ most recent Grade 12 results. Final admission will take place upon receipt of the final Grade 12 results, which will be available early in January 2011.

Prospective students can obtain application forms for admission at the following places:

The UFS’s web site at www.ufs.ac.za,
The Information Office (Unit for Prospective Students) at the Thakaneng Bridge on the UFS’s Main Campus in Bloemfontein,
You may also send an e-mail to info@ufs.ac.za or
Phone 051 401 3000 and the necessary forms will be posted to you.

Senior undergraduate students (that is all students who were registered up to and during 2010 at the UFS) as well as post-graduate students, must self-register electronically on-line from Monday, 1 November 2010 until Tuesday, 4 January 2011. This includes master’s and doctoral students.

In order to encourage senior students to register online, the UFS offers 20 laptops as incentives for the senior students who successfully register online from 1 November 2010. These laptops will be handed over to the winners after the registration process in 2011.

Registration of first-year students:

The Rector and Vice-Chancellor, Prof. Jonathan Jansen, will welcome first-year students on Friday, 14 January and Saturday, 15 January 2011, respectively, in the Callie Human Centre. The Faculties of Economic and Management Sciences, the Humanities and Education will be welcomed on 14 January 2011 and the students of the Faculties of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, Law and Theology shall be welcomed on 15 January 2011. The compulsory orientation programme for new first-years will also then commence.

From 17 to 21 January 2011 first-year students will receive academic advice at the Callie Human Centre, whereafter they will be referred for self-registration. These processes will take place according to the set timetable. This timetable is available in the Kovsie Guide that will be sent to learners as soon as we have received their applications, as well as on the web site of the UFS at www.ufs.ac.za/register2011.

First-year students’ fees must be paid prior to arrival on 14 and 15 January 2011.

Registration of senior students:

Senior students who experience problems with the electronic on-line self-registration process have the opportunity to resolve problems within a programme on campus from Wednesday, 5 January until Wednesday, 12 January 2011. This programme will be sent out to students and is also available at www.ufs.ac.za/register2011. The specific scheduled day for senior students to resolve problems is the last and only day to resolve the problem.

Senior students can also contact 051 401 9111 for more information in this regard.

Students may register for prescribed modules for 2011, even though the November 2010 examination results are not yet available. Changes resulting from examination results that are made available later can be done up to and including 28 January 2011.

In terms of applications for senior students, only students who have interrupted a calendar year of study need to re-apply for admission.

Registration of students at the UFS’s Qwaqwa Campus:

Senior and first-year students of the UFS’s Qwaqwa Campus register from Wednesday, 12 January until Friday, 28 January 2011 in the Nelson Mandela Hall on this campus.

Registration of students at the UFS South Campus:

First-year students from the UFS’s South Campus in the University Preparation Programme and the Extended Programme (only Natural and Agricultural Sciences) register from Monday, 24 January till Friday, 28 January 2011 in the Arena Hall on the South Campus.

Students who have successfully completed the University Preparation Programme register with the first-year students on the UFS Main Campus on Friday, 14 and Saturday, 15 January 2011 – according to faculties (cf. paragraph 6).

Lectures for all students shall commence on Monday, 24 January 2011.

MEDIA RELEASE
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl@ufs.ac.za
26 October 2010

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