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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Unique programme for next generation of professors launched
2010-11-19

Some of the scholars taking part in the Vice-Chancellor's Prestige Young Scholars Programme are, from the left: Dr Andréhette Verster, Ms Liezel Kotzé and Dr Nthabeleng Rammile.
Photo: Stephen Collett

The University of the Free State (UFS) has launched a programme that will provide an accelerated pathway to 25 young scholars with recent PhDs and teach them how to become professors through intensive local and international mentorship, research support and academic training.

The Vice-Chancellor’s Prestige Programme for Young Scholars focuses on the next generation of top researchers in South Africa who will fill the gap left by retiring academics. It will also add significantly to the diversity of the professoriate at the UFS.

No other university in the country has a programme of such scale and intensity for building excellence and diversity through young scholars.

“The programme is highly selective and limited to the most promising young scholars at the university. It will also contribute towards establishing an international reputation for the university and positioning the UFS as one of the best research institutions in the country,” said Prof. Neil Roos, Director of the Postgraduate School at the UFS. He will manage the programme together with Prof. Jackie du Toit, also from the university.

Running for the next three years, the programme will put the 25 scholars through an intensive programme of academic and scholarship support which includes advanced theoretical and methodological training and exposure to leading international scholars in their fields. They will also be exposed to intensive reading and writing programmes, high-level seminar and conference participation and presentation, accelerated publication schedules and personal mentoring and advising plans.

“Scholarship will only grow if there is a critical mass – and this is what we want to achieve at the UFS. We want to create a pool of young scholars, develop and connect them with international scholars and place them at top universities in the world where they can be mentored by the best in their respective fields,” said Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS at the launch of the programme.

According to Prof. Jansen, the UFS aims to draw public intellectuals and A-rated scientists to the campus and make academic work attractive to academics at the university and countrywide.

The group of scholars has a good academic record, with 69% of them completing their PhDs within the last five years. The group is well represented in terms of race and gender; the majority are in the 26 to 30-year age group and specialisations include the social sciences (including education, the humanities and arts) as well as the natural sciences.

“Scholarship develops over time. We are proud and extremely honoured to be selected for this prestigious programme. With this scholarship we acknowledge the responsibility of building the UFS and of extending our knowledge across disciplines. We will establish a scholarly advancement for our university that will enable it to compete with the best in the world,” said Dr Nalize Marais, one of the prestige scholars.

The launch was also attended by members of the university’s International Advisory Council (IAC). This council, which visited the university the past week to advise the leadership on its future positioning strategies, especially in relation to its international aspiration to become a place of scholarship and service among the leading universities in the world, congratulated the UFS on this groundbreaking programme.

“You are lucky to have a leadership that dares to dream and that can act the dream. You are fortunate that your leadership wants to take this university forward and explore new horizons,” said Prof. Aki Saweyrr, former Secretary-General of the Association of African Universities in Ghana and member of the IAC.

Ending the evening’s programme was Dr Gansen Pillay, Vice-President of the National Research Foundation. Prof. Gansen also congratulated the UFS on its visionary and inspirational leadership. “It is a privilege to make a life-changing contribution to research in the world. Universities must take ownership of their own development – which is exactly what the UFS is doing. And, although this is a truly South African programme, it could have an impact on the rest of the world,” he said.
 

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