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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Dr Khotso Mokhele joins ranks of distinguished Chancellors

2010-11-21

Attending the inauguration ceremony are, from the left: Mr Pule Makgoe, MEC for Education in the Free State and member of the UFS Council; Judge Ian van der Merwe, Chairperson of the UFS Council; Dr Khotso Mokhele, newly inaugurated Chancellor of the UFS; and Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS.
Photo: Dries Myburgh

Dr Khotso Mokhele joined the ranks of distinguished Chancellors of the University of the Free State (UFS) with his inauguration as the new Chancellor of the institution at a ceremony on Friday, 19 November 2010.

The lustrous ceremony took place on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein and was attended by hundreds of guests from all over South Africa.

Dr Mokhele said in his speech: “I am excited to have been invited by the UFS to join its community at the time when it is attempting to reinvent itself into an institution that will be counted amongst those that will shape the local, regional, national will, and by so doing, contribute to the shaping of an African will.”

Dr Mokhele follows in the footsteps of Dr Franklin Sonn, former Ambassador of South Africa in the United States of America and receiver of many awards, acknowledgements, and honorary doctorates, who retired earlier this year. Dr Sonn was preceded by Ms Winkie Direko, former premier of the Free State.

His acceptance of the role of Chancellor is a great honour for the UFS.

According to Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS, it is a proud moment to welcome someone from the Province as the Chancellor of this university. With his strong academic values and deep sense of human compassion, Dr Mokhele is one of but a few uncompromising leaders. He is also an inspiring, determined pioneer and a role model to all our students.

Few have done as much to guide the development of science in South Africa since democracy in 1994 as Dr Mokhele. His vision and actions as a senior science manager have been guided by his deep conviction that for a truly democratic society to emerge in South Africa all people must be empowered to be its architects and must have unhindered access to those careers upon which our economy is built.

Dr Khotso Mokhele was born and raised in Bloemfontein. After matriculating from the Moroka High School he went on to study at Fort Hare, where he graduated with a B.Sc. in Agriculture, winning the Massey-Ferguson award for the best student in that field. As a recipient of the prestigious Fulbright-Hays Scholarship, he entered the University of California in Davis where he took a M.Sc. and a Ph.D. degree, both in Microbiology. He was awarded post-doctoral fellowships at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine in Baltimore, Maryland, and at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.

Dr Mokhele returned to South Africa in 1987, set on becoming a top-class academic and researcher. He held lecturing posts at the Universities of Fort Hare (1987-1989) and Cape Town (1990-1992). In 1992 he joined the Foundation for Research Development (FRD) as one of its Vice-Presidents. He succeeded to its presidency in 1996 and then from 1999 to 2006 became the first President of the National Research Foundation (NRF). He successfully merged the FRD and the Centre for Science Development of the Human Sciences Research Council. Under his visionary leadership the NRF has come to play a pivotal role in the development agenda of the country. He was also instrumental in the establishment of the South African Academy of Sciences serving as its founder president (1996-1998).

Dr Khotso Mokhele's contribution to science in South Africa has received wide recognition locally and abroad. He has received nine honorary doctorates. He was made a Chevalier of the Legion of Honour by the President of France in recognition of his personal efforts in strengthening scientific ties between France and South Africa, and was appointed a director of the Salzburg Seminar, an institution focused on global change, and subsequently a member of its Council of Senior Fellows.

He also serves on the boards of major companies such as Implats, Adcock Ingram and Afrox.

Complete speech (Pdf)

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl@ufs.ac.za19 November 2010

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