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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

B. Iur. programme in Occupational Risk Law first of its kind in the country

2010-11-26

The University of the Free State (UFS) will offer a B.Iur. degree programme in Occupational Risk Law from 2011.

This programme of the Faculty of Law is the first of its kind to be offered in South Africa and positions the UFS in the forefront of this field of study.

The programme is designed to develop and qualify professionals, knowledgeable in the field of occupational risk law as prescribed by South African legislation and international best practices. It further offers a qualification based on a well-researched basis of applicable legal principles, combined with safety, health, environmental and quality risk management principles applicable to employers and employees in a specialised industry.

The B.Iur. (Occupational Risk Law) has been developed by experts within the parameters of international comparability, according to research-based identification of career demands and requirements in the fields mentioned.

By introducing this programmesignificant progress will be made towards achieving the nationally stated objective of legal safety, health and environmental quality assurance in the workplace and within the broader community. The programme will also encompass the values and standards prescribed by the Institute of Safety Managers. This will provide them with a further step towards the regulation of the professional en ethical standards in the field of legal safety, health and environmental quality assurance.

With the programme, the UFS not only creates a unique opportunity for stakeholders and learners to add meaningful value to their careers, but also exerts a meaningful influence on the industry and society in terms of the acquisition of a most appropriate type of qualification. The B.Iur. (Occupational Risk Law)degree therefore offers a meaningful contribution towards the industry through addressing the increasing demand for career opportunities in the field of legal safety, health and environmental quality compliance.

The new programme is the result of an agreement between the faculty and its partner, IRCA Global. The university officially launched its partnership with IRCA Global, an international supplier of risk management solutions pertaining to safety, health, the environment and quality in 2008. As part of the agreement, the UFS will offer short learning programme, a diploma and a degree in Risk Management.

IRCA Global is a South African company in the international risk control and SHEQ environments with filials in Africa, Australia, India, Eastern Europe, and South America.

In the interim IRCA Global has continued with the marketing of the programme, with the result that hundreds of potential students are waiting for the launching of the programme. The faculty is geared towards offering the programme in e-learning. New modules will also be offered with the help of IRCA’s trained and skilled facilitators. The faculty also utilises the partnerships entered into with IRCA to appoint practising specialists as part-time lecturers for the occupational risk law component of the programme as well as to develop a new specialist component amongst the permanent staff.

The programme is already active and students can register for the first semester 2011 (study code 3324, programme code M3000). Direct your enquiries to Cora-Mari de Vos at 051 401 3532 or devosc@ufs.ac.za.

The programme consists of fundamental modules of the LL.B. and B.Iur., as well as short learning programmes in the Faculty of Law and specially developed core modules in occupational risk law. The B.Iur.in Occupational Risk Law enables successful candidates to enrol for applicable Post Graduate Diplomas or a cognate Honours Degree. Obtaining one of these qualifications provides the platform to articulate to Magister degrees. Horizontal articulation possibilities exist with the accredited Baccalaureus of Law (LL.B.) which is presented by several institutions in the country.

Media Release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl@ufs.ac.za
26 November 2010

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