Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items
Previous Archive
08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS institute set to contribute to transformation in South Africa
2011-01-23

The UFS launches it's new International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice.
- Photo: Dries and Henco Myburgh

Today (Thursday, 27 January 2011), almost three years after the Reitz affair, the University of the Free State (UFS) is launching its International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice. This international institute will be inaugurated by Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu, Nobel Peace Prize Laureate and Chairperson of the former Truth and Reconciliation Commission, who received an honorary doctorate in Theology from the university earlier today.

According to Mr John Samuel, Interim Director of the institute and former Chief Executive Officer of the Nelson Mandela Foundation, the institute seeks to establish itself as a premier international site for research on race, reconciliation and social justice.

“It is encouraging to see the UFS bringing to the fore such an initiative, which combines a study in race, reconciliation and social justice, all of which are indispensible elements in the process of rebuilding our nation,” said the Deputy President of South Africa, Mr Kgalema Motlanthe, in his message of congratulations to the university.

“I am confident that on the strength of its stature, coupled with its eminent experience as an academic institution, the UFS will further assist our country advance towards a united, non-racial, non-sexism, just and prosperous future.

“I wish the institute well in its arduous but noble task of contributing to the building of a better human society,” he said.

Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector, stated during his official inauguration in 2009 that the university would be an example of a place where reconciliation, forgiveness and social justice would not only be studied, but where it would also be applied in practice. “Students and scholars from across the world will come to the UFS to study the theory and practice about the building of societies across the boundaries of race, as well as religion, gender, disabilities and national origin,” Prof. Jansen said.

The institute is a critical space where engaged scholarship, public discussion, community engagement and teaching are innovatively integrated towards exploring and finding solutions to the complex and challenging work of social transformation in South Africa.

The institute furthermore works towards the realisation of its mission through a multiplicity of approaches and methods, informed by the notion that deep and complex social challenges require courageous and challenging scholarship, supported by innovative organisational forms and institutional arrangements.

Working from the inside to the outside, the institute will firstly serve the needs of the university, its staff and students. Through its research, the institute will endeavour to understand the challenges facing the UFS better, as well as how to address these challenges. For this reason, the concept of the UFS as a “live laboratory” and the use of evidence-based practice remain important for the university.

The institute will also reach out and empower its stakeholder communities through research and ongoing involvement on issues of race, reconciliation and social justice. Furthermore the institution expects to contribute to the creation of national and international networks and dialogue platforms pertaining to race, reconciliation and social justice.

For the first five years, the themes of 1) Values, Faith and Social Justice; 2) Development and Social Cohesion; 3) Teaching and Learning for Social Justice; and 4) Provincial, National, Global Perspectives and Leadership will direct the institute’s work.

The UFS will make a substantial contribution to the pursuit of reconciliation, greater social cohesion and equity in South Africa. The university is thus prepared to continue to engage the difficult, practical and trying work of building a strong, quality institution as it promotes racial healing and addresses the structural imbalances of the past. It is at this nexus that the institute commits to enabling change at the university as well contributing to transformation in South Africa.

Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe's message of support to the University of the Free State (PDF format)

Media Release
27 January 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

 

 

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept