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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Honorary doctorate to Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu attracts wide attention
2011-01-27

Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu after receiving his honorary doctorate in Theology at the UFS.
- Photo: Hannes Pieterse

 

The University of the Free State (UFS) awarded an honorary doctorate to Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu on Thursday, 27 January 2011. The graduation ceremony, which was attended by guests from across the country marks a milestone in the history of the university.

Amongst the guests were the ambassador of the USA to South Africa, Mr Donald Gips; the British High Commissioner to South Africa, Dr Nicola Brewer; members of the local government; Ms Barbara Hogan, former Minister of Public Works and the daughters of Bram Fischer, Ruth Fischer-Rice and Ilse Fischer-Wilson. Friends of Dr Tutu, Dr Ahmed Kathrada, Ms Barbara Hogan and Dr Allan and Ms Elna Boesak also attended the occasion.
 
The UFS also received a message of congratulations from the Deputy President of South Africa, Mr Kgalema Motlanthe. “The choice to honour this exemplar of virtue to which most of the world still look for direction as it buckles under social, political and economic difficulties is laudable in all respects,” he said.
Prof. Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS, said: “We honour a great son of South Africa who made a tremendous contribution to peace, reconciliation and justice in South Africa and in the world.
 
“There were times when few of us thought apartheid would end in our lifetime, yet you stood as a rock reassuring us, not about a black future, but about our common future. For this reason, Arch, we would not miss this opportunity to honour you for any reason whatsoever.
 
“You, Sir, are a Jew among Muslims, a Christian among Hindus, a Catholic among Anglicans, a bridge-builder among all of us. That is why we love you; because you look deeper and see further than all of us.”
 
According to Prof. Francois Tolmie, Dean of the UFS’s Faculty of Theology, the university honours Dr Tutu for his contribution as theologian – through his teaching and the books he wrote – as well as for the role he played in bringing about reconciliation in South Africa as well as in the rest of the world. The university also honours Dr Tutu as a moral and spiritual leader who never sacrificed his integrity as a Christian.
 
Apart from being a church leader and a leading world figure, Dr Tutu is the author of several books and also held a number of teaching posts at various tertiary institutions.
 
In 1984, he received the Nobel Peace Prize for his role as a unifying leader figure in the campaign to abolish apartheid in South Africa. A further highlight in his career was his election as Archbishop of Cape Town in 1986. He was the first black African to serve in this position, which placed him at the head of the Anglican Church in South Africa.  
 
Many South Africans also remember the role he played when President Nelson Mandela appointed him in December 1995 to chair the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which was established to investigate human rights violations during the apartheid era. The Archbishop guided the nation in the process of choosing forgiveness over revenge and in so doing set a historic international precedent.   
 
In 1996, he retired as Archbishop of Cape Town but continues to speak out in favour of human rights, equality and social justice in South Africa and throughout the world.
 
In August 2009, President Barack Obama presented him with the Medal of Freedom, the United States of America’s highest civilian honour. Dr Desmond Tutu is recognised around the world as a moral leader committed to the human rights of all people.
 
Today he is chairman of The Elders, a group of world leaders who, in view of their integrity and leadership, are equipped to deal with some of the world’s most pressing problems.
 
Prof. Tolmie says: “It is often asked how Dr Tutu could have achieved all this in the span of one lifetime. Some people would refer to his warm personality or his humanness, his deep sense of humility or his wonderful sense of humour. Probing a little deeper, however, one is struck by Dr Tutu’s deep relationship with God. He is known as a man of faith, a man of prayer. He lives his life coram Deo, in the presence of God.”
 
Dr Tutu also lead the introduction ceremony of the UFS’s International Institute for Studies in Race, Reconciliation and Social Justice.
 
 
Media Release
27 January 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication (actg)
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za
 

 

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