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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS launches projects to assist communities and current students
2011-03-16

Prof. Jonathan Jansen, UFS Vice-Chancellor and Rector and Mr Rudi Buys, Dean: Student Affairs, with learners at the  Bloemfontein-Oos Intermediary School.
Photo: Stephen Collett

The University of the Free State (UFS) has launched four exciting projects set out to improve the circumstances of its current and prospective students. These include a project that will honour dedicated and influential educators.

These community service projects in the starting blocks are: the UFS Schools Partnership Project, Extreme Make-over Project, Great Teachers Project and the No Student Hungry Campaign.
 
The Schools Partnership Project aims to support 21 schools across the Free State in helping them to become top achievers in the next three to five years. The schools involved were selected last year, after which the groundwork for the project was finalised. Although it mainly focuses on improving scholars' results in mathematics, accounting, physical sciences and English, it is also custom-designed according to the specific needs of the school, as indicated by the respective governing bodies beforehand. As a bonus, scholars of the schools involved will be given an opportunity to be introduced to student life; something Dr Choice Makhetha, UFS Vice-Rector: External Relations (acting), claimed to be of great importance. “We will invite Grade 10 to 12 learners to winter and summer schools being presented at the university. We will connect learners with students (one student adopts one learner for the day) for them to experience campus life. Grade 12 learners will also receive an invitation to the May 2011 graduation ceremony,” Dr Makhetha said.
 
Adding to the university's involvement at schools on local level, the newly upgraded Bloemfontein-Oos Intermediary School with its 112 UFS-sponsored tables will officially be revealed by the end of April. Although this school's upgrade showcases the power of partnerships, it is of special importance to the university, as it also marks the first school to receive an extreme make-over as part of the 'Extreme Make-over for Schools Project'. This project, in conjunction with the local business community, university staff and students, the community, the Department of Basic Education and SIFE (Students in Free Enterprise), is considered to be a flagship project of the Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof. Jonathan Jansen. Part of the project’s agreement includes visits from a group of about 100 students representing campus initiatives such as the UFS’s Kovscom, Rag and SIFE, which will contribute to the improvement of the schools' resources within a period of 10 – 15 weekends. “We invite support from all corners. South Africa has a business community committed to improving the social circumstances of its community and we plead that they also come to the rescue of the Bloemfontein-Oos Intermediary School,” said Dr Makhetha.
 
By spreading a 'can do' attitude, the UFS aims to honour noble and remarkable teachers across the country by means of its 'Great teacher's project'. Through the project, fellow citizens are encouraged to submit their stories on their former or current teachers’ dedication and their positive impact which are often overlooked. The panel of seasoned education scholars and practitioners will select the top 500 stories based on the stories' clarity, distinctiveness, plausibility and affectability, which will be perpetuated in a book called 'Great Teachers', to be released at the end of this year. Proceeds are destined to serve as bursaries for students who wish to pursue a career in education. According to Prof. Jansen the ideal teacher is: “Somebody who was among, but stood out above, their colleagues, a person who made a lasting impact long after the details of subject matter content of examination preparation were forgotten.”
 
Regardless of this exceptional effort of supporting schools across the province, the UFS remains committed to its students and their social welfare by means of the 'No student hungry' campaign. This project provides financially challenged students the opportunity to purchase food from the Thakaneng Bridge on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein by using their student cards at two selected kiosks serving balanced meals. The project, which is under the guardianship of Ms Grace Jansen and Dr Carin Buys, relies solely on several fund-raising projects across the country. These women are the respective spouses of the Rector and Dean: Student Affairs, Mr Rudi Buys. According to Ms Jansen this initiative was proposed after UFS staff reported that many students were struggling to concentrate on their studies due to hunger pangs. Although the campaign recognizes students with strong academic records, it doesn't overlook those who need a food bursary which might result in them dropping out. Ms Jansen said as the external funds gathered increase, so will the amount of students being supported by the project. “The plan is to continue until the fate of hungry students had come to an end,” she said.
 

Media Release
14 March 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

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