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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS to send a second group of first-year students overseas
2011-03-23

Some of the students who were chosen in 2010

Following the resounding success of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Student Leadership Development Programme in 2010, the UFS will send a second group of students to the USA in 2011 and also extend the programme by sending students to various universities in Europe and Asia.

This year a total of 150 first-year students will be selected compared to the 71 students that were selected last year. Last year’s group of students spent two weeks, between September and October 2010, at various universities across the United States.
                                         
The programme intends to expose the students to diverse cultures and enable them to learn leadership skills. The goal of the programme is to build a new class of UFS students who become leaders during their years of study and commit to building a non-racial community during and beyond their years at university.
 
Mr Rudi Buys, the UFS Dean of Student Affairs, says: “With the programme we want to develop participants’ thinking and capacity to lead in the contexts of diversity and change and we hope to direct them to programmes leading to change in student life in general upon their return.”
 
The three core purposes of allowing students an opportunity to study abroad are:
  • to introduce South African students to positive models of racial integration and integrated residential life;
  • to share and exchange ideas around issues of race, racism, racial integration and racial reconciliation, with undergraduate students abroad; and
  • to build long-term networking and collaboration between academics and researchers interested in scholarly work on themes of race, reconciliation and social justice.
 
Last year students were selected based on their ability to reflect critically on knowledge of societal issues and successful candidates were put through a preparatory development programme. They were divided into groups and given assignments to complete during the programme. A similar selection process will be undertaken this year.
 
Upon their return, last year’s group of students demonstrated extremely positive outcomes, during an assessment of the project’s goals and achievements. More than 80% of participants agreed that the course met all expectations; the content was meaningful and challenged their existing views. More than 90% felt that the course meaningfully addressed diversity. Among the successes achieved by the programme is the influence of participants in the student community.
 
Many serve as peer mentors for the Gateway First-Year Welcoming and Orientation Programme, while others serve as mentors in well-being and academic peer advisory programmes. Many have also been elected as members of executive committees of student associations and management committees in residences, while some have availed themselves to run for student governance structures throughout 2011 and 2012.
 
The programme proved to be so successful that it was decided to expand the number of students selected for the programme to 150 this year and first-year students are invited to apply. It is envisaged that 90 students will visit American universities, while 60 will visit institutions in Europe and Asia.
 
Last year the students were hosted by, amongst others, Cornell University, the University of New York, Cleveland State University and the University of Massachusetts.
Yale University, Amherst College and other American universities will join these host universities in 2011, in addition to the European and Asian institutions.
 
Those first-year students who wish to apply can find all the information at www.ufs.ac.za 
 

Media Release
23 March 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za
 

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