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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS Council votes on top appointments

2003-11-24

The Council of the University of the Free State (UFS) today voted on the filling of four senior vacancies, including three posts at Vice-Rector level and one at the level of Dean.

The Council voted as follows:
- Prof Magda Fourie will be offered the post of Vice-Rector: Academic Planning
- Dr Ezekiel Moraka will be offered the post of Vice-Rector: Student Affairs
- Prof Teuns Verschoor will be offered the post of Vice-Rector: Academic Operations
- Prof Letticia Moja will be offered the post of Dean: Faculty of Health Sciences

Two of the candidates, Prof Teuns Verschoor and Prof Magda Fourie, are currently acting Vice-Rectors at the UFS. Prof Verschoor is acting Vice-Rector for Student Affairs and Prof Fourie is acting Vice-Rector for Academic Planning. Dr Moraka is currently Dean of Student Affairs at the University of Pretoria (UP). Prof Moja is currently the acting Dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences at the UFS.

According to the Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS, Prof Frederick Fourie, the filling of these senior vacancies comes after one of the most thorough search and selection processes ever at the UFS.

“It is wonderful that we are able to celebrate the outcome of this process that has brought forward such excellent candidates who reflect our country’s diversity. It shows that we can achieve the goals of quality and diversity at the same time,” Prof Fourie said.

Prof Magda Fourie (49) received her Ph D on Institutional governance of higher education in transition: a South African perspective from the UFS in 1996. She joined the UFS in 1998, later becoming Director of the Centre for Higher Education Studies and Development and Professor in Higher Education Studies. She said in her declaration of intent her aspiration is to contribute to making the UFS the excellent university it foresees in its vision and mission. Academic planning should position the UFS with regard to its core activities strategically as an institution of excellence that will meet the future from a strong basis of academic integrity and credibility.

Dr Moraka (45) received his Ph D in Education Management on Management of change and conflict resolution by student affairs officers at historically white universities in South Africa from the UP in 2002. He is Dean of Students at the UP since 2001. Before that he was Head of Student Support and Student Social Services at the UP for six years. He was also, among others, a lecturer at a college of education and a pastor of the Dutch Reformed Church in Africa. He said in his declaration of intent that diversity can become so greatly emphasised that people can be driven further apart. Focus should be on moulding a student community where everyone can feel at home, a community which lives together and works together without destroying what is unique to each individual.

Prof Verschoor (53) received his LL D in 1980 at the University of Pretoria on The criminal responsibility of psychopaths and similar figures. He was professor in and Head of the Department of Criminal Law and Medical Law at the UFS for 17 years before becoming Dean of Students in 1994. He said in his declaration of intent that he dreams of the realisation of projects that are awaiting the enthusiastic support, bringing together and empowering of persons involved by a Vice-Rector that wants to see the UFS prosper in an era of continuing dynamic development. In this he would like to make a substantial contribution.

Prof Moja (46) received her MB ChB in 1982 from the University of Natal and her M.Med in Obstetrics and Gynecology in 1990 from the Medical University of South Africa (Medunsa). She became a full professor in 2003 at the UFS and has been acting as Dean of the UFS’s Faculty of Health Sciences since February 2003. She said in her declaration of intent that the challenge for her is to manage change with the ultimate aim of both achieving the vision of the UFS and satisfying the needs of the community. Some of the academic challenges include the training of more people from designated groups and rural areas. Careful planning and integration of the curriculum should be done to ensure that all students perform to their best.

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