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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Change and growth at the University of the Free State
2011-07-04

 

Graphical representation of the High Performance Centre

“Come gather round people, wherever you roam. And admit that the waters around you have grown…”

These are the opening lines of Bob Dylan’s iconic single The times they are-a changing. They are also extremely apt words to describe the excitement about the winds of change and growth blowing across the University of the Free State, not only academically, but also physically.

Over the past few months there has been non-stop construction and growth of a physical nature, with several new buildings being erected and new sculptures rising up all over the Bloemfontein Campus.

The most visible and probably the most striking of all the new structures is the brand-new main entrance to the campus. This stunning new feature welcomes visitors to the campus in Nelson Mandela Drive, in the colours of each of the university’s seven faculties.

Once through this beautiful new gate, visitors have a choice of new and exciting features to explore on the campus.

The first is the brand new climbing wall, which is located against the West Block and Chemistry Buildings. This new addition to the campus is available for use by all enthusiasts of this exciting sport.

The Office of the Dean of Student Affairs manages the administration of the wall and students who want to climb can book at their office in the Student Centre at the Thakaneng Bridge. In order to ensure that students do not use the wall without permission, and to prevent accidents, the wall is covered by a tarpaulin, which is locked when the wall is not in use.

Next on the list of new developments is the high-performance gymnasium which is currently still under construction. With this project the university wants to create a work environment for its staff that will not only contribute to the cultivation of maximum work performance, but also to staff wellness.

The centre with its foyer and administrative offices will also consist of a health desk, university sports institute, sports sales, a spinning and aerobic centre, and dressing rooms. The total area will extend more than 2114 m².

Progress on other building projects, which commenced last year, is also very pleasing. One of the projects is a new Education Building which is being constructed opposite the UFS Sasol Library. Upon completion, this building will be used for the training of maths and science teachers in the Foundation Phase. It will include three classrooms for 100 students each and an auditorium for 225 students as well as an office block. The auditorium will also be used as a classroom. The building has been designed according to environmentally friendly principles to save water and use power effectively. Construction is going swimmingly and should be completed soon.

Planning for the construction of more student accommodation on the Bloemfontein Campus as well as the Qwaqwa Campus is also well underway. On the Qwaqwa Campus, a residence with 200 beds is being constructed. This also includes a computer laboratory. According to the planning, this residence is near completion. Furthermore, four residences will be constructed on the Bloemfontein Campus. These residences are in the planning phase.

In order to place technology within reach of Kovsie students and thereby empowering them, computer laboratories were installed at all residences. The computer laboratories will eventually make provision for approximately185 computers for student use. Proper security is also planned to safeguard the equipment.
A brand-new building for the Faculty of Health Sciences is also proceeding rapidly. This building will include a lecture hall for 200 students, five venues for 100 students each, as well as offices. Students from the School for Medicine and Occupational Therapy will make use of these facilities.

The new building for the Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences between the Flippie Groenewoud Building and the Wynand Mouton Theatre is also coming along nicely.

On the university’s Qwaqwa Campus a new Education building is being constructed. This building will include a lecturing hall with 100 seats, four 50-seat classrooms, six offices, ablution facilities, biology and science laboratory, as well as an information technology laboratory for 60 students.

In the meantime, existing buildings are being renovated on all the campuses. This includes, amongst others, improvements to the Architecture Building, the Biotechnology Building and the quarters for service workers on the Bloemfontein Campus. Other improvements that have already been completed include renovations to the Odeion’s foyer and the Callie Human Centre.

A special memorial park for women, residential accommodation within a sports environment, and a botanical garden are also among the beautiful, exciting new sites to be seen on the campus.

Coupled with all the beautiful sculptures, funded by the Lotto Sculpture project, our university’s campuses will soon be a more vibrant, beautiful attraction.
 

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