Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items

High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

SRC elections of our Bloemfontein Campus

2011-07-26

The Student Council elections of our university at the Bloemfontein Campus will take place on 29 and 30 August 2011. These official election dates were announced by Mr Rudi Buys, Dean: Student Affairs, on 25 July 2011.

Nominations open on Wednesday, 27 July 2011 and the elections, which are constituted according to the SRC Constitution, shall be handled by the Independent Electoral Agency, which shall be instituted by the SRC Constitution with this in view.

“The elections introduce a new era in student leadership and governance, because student representation will now constituted in such a way that affords the majority of students the opportunity to vote directly for their representatives. Senior leadership structures are extended in the new Constitution, in order to allow more students to hold senior positions,” states Mr Buys.

The SRC elections follow on the approval of a new Constitution that was accepted by our Council on 3 June 2011.

The Constitution was drafted over a period of eight months by the Broad Student Transformation Forum (BSTF), consisting of students, in order to design a new dispensation in student structures. The BSTF, which decided on new models of student representation in collaboration with independent facilitators, consists of more than 70 student organisations and residences. The changes to the Constitution were decided on and accepted by the BSTF, after recommendations from four student study groups, which investigated student leadership and governance in depth, at national as well as international level, were taken into account. The study groups visited nine (9) other SA universities, as well as investigated student representation at internationally renowned universities like Cornell, Yale and Stanford in the United States of America.

Ms Modieyi Motholo, Chairperson of the Interim Student Committee, says that she is very proud of what the students have achieved with the new Constitution. “I wish to accord recognition to all the students who lead the process for all their hard work. Constitutional revision is a strenuous process and it is nothing short of a miracle that the students could not only reconstruct the Constitution, but also have it accepted in less than a year.”

The important changes include, amongst others:

Candidates no longer stand on behalf of parties in the elections, but as independent candidates for 10 predetermined portfolios for which students can vote directly;
Students also directly vote for a President and a Vice-President;
Nine (9) SRC members serve ex-officio as SRC members by virtue of being chairpersons of nine additional student councils established by the Constitution. Amongst others, the councils include a postgraduate student council, an international student council, a student media council and a student academic affairs council;
More stringent eligibility requirements are set for candidates, namely that students who wish to run in the elections has to, amongst others, sustain an academic average of more than 60%, and hold proven student leadership experience (which could be verified by the Independent Electoral Agency).

“With the SRC elections, students have the opportunity to firmly entrench the changes in student governance on which they have decided on by themselves firmly, as a sustainable model for democracy at our Bloemfontein Campus. It speaks volumes that the number of leadership positions for which candidates can make themselves available, in essence has been increased by the number of additional student sub-councils from 21 to 67, because it brings about much more direct representation for different students across the campus,” says Mr Buys.

“I firmly believe that the upcoming student council elections will be a success,” says Motholo. “I wish the students, who are prepared to sacrifice a year of their lives in service of the student community as a member of the SRC, all of the best.”

The Qwaqwa Campus’ election schedule shall be announced within the next week, as well as the date of the institution of the Central Student Council (CSC).

Media Release
26 July 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

Back

Economic and Management Sciences

Education

Health Sciences

The Humanities

Law

Natural and Agricultural Sciences

Theology and Religion

Open Distance Learning

Business School

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept