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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS Odeion School of Music (OSM) launched
2011-09-15

The University of the Free State’s (UFS) Odeion School of Music will be launched at the first Dean’s Concert in the Odeion on the Bloemfontein Campus on Friday, 16 September 2011.

The former Department of Music, in the Faculty of Humanities, has been transformed and will henceforth be known as the Odeion School of Music (OSM). This follows in the path of the corporate transition currently taking place at the university, which aims to reflect the progressive and dynamic striving towards excellence, as endorsed by the UFS Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof. Jonathan Jansen, and his management group.
 
Two years ago the faculty formulated a new mission with the aim to become an international faculty of excellence. An important component of it has been to create a pro-active marketing strategy and policy towards internationalisation and curriculum development.
 
The name Odeion School of Music portrays not only an excellent asset in the Free State, but also nationally and internationally. The school’s new name bears the respected Odeion brand and a number of successful and respected ensembles operate under this brand. These include the acclaimed residential Odeion String Quartet, as well as the Music Department’s student ensembles, the Junior Odeion String Quartet, the Odeion Sinfonia, and the Odeion Choir.
 
According to Prof. Nicol Viljoen, the Chairperson of the OSM, the name change was motivated by the following objectives:
  • The idea of a school within the Faculty of Humanities not only reflects an academic profile that does justice to the intention of the Department to reposition itself, but also simulates the current identity of the unit. This encompasses diverse thematic entities not only from an academic perspective, but also from a community and cultural perspective. The unit does this through providing services, which include arts entertainment, the provision of facilities, as well as a strong emphasis on community development.
  • With regard to an international perspective, it provides attractive possibilities not only from the perspective of a marketing and publicity profile, but also with regard to the identity of the unit.  
  • Hypothetically the new name allows more flexibility to complement the profile with reference to newly anticipated developments. These include the application of prestigious international experts as artistic fellows, membership to progressive European, jointly developed degree programmes and curriculum development initiatives, the founding of a chair in Orchestra Conducting, a master’s degree in Arts Management, as well as the incorporation of bio-kinetics in the teaching methodologies of performance practice, to name but a few.
  • From a management perspective it could also consolidate the perspective of scarce skill specialisation.
  • To give momentum to the establishment of the OSM, Mr Marius Coetzee was appointed as Innovation Manager. He is a former Project Manager of the European Degree in International Music Management – a joint degree initiative between three Universities from Norway, the Netherlands and Finland, funded by the EU in Brussels. His aim will be to develop and investigate aspects such as internationalisation, marketing, pro-active recruitment strategies, curriculum development and innovative teaching methodologies.
Mr Coetzee said music conservatories, from both European and American perspectives are managed and maintained as highly successful and substantial brands. From the European perspective some examples include the Sibelius Academy in Helsinki (Finland), the Liszt Academy in Budapest (Hungary), the Grieg Academy in Bergen (Norway) and the former Sweelinck Academy in Amsterdam (Netherlands). Similar to the South African milieu, the majority of music conservatories in the USA and Canada are resident within an academic university.
However, unlike the South African reality, the majority of these institutions have a value-added identity portrayed by a specific name. Such an example is the renowned Peabody Conservatory of the University of Baltimore or the Jacobs School of Music at the Indiana University Bloomington, to name but a few.
 
The Dean’s Concert will highlight performances of students in the school. The concert will probably become a regular event in future Spring Music Festivals.


Media Release
15 September 2011
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Tel: 051 401 2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za
 

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