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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

New world-class Chemistry facilities at UFS

2011-11-22

A world-class research centre was introduced on Friday 18 November 2011 when the new Chemistry building on the Bloemfontein Campus of the University of the Free State (UFS) was officially opened.
The upgrading of the building, which has taken place over a period of five years, is the UFS’s largest single financial investment in a long time. The building itself has been renovated at a cost of R60 million and, together with the new equipment acquired, the total investment exceeds R110 million. The university has provided the major part of this, with valuable contributions from Sasol and the South African Research Foundation (NRF), which each contributed more than R20 million for different facets and projects.
The senior management of Sasol, NECSA (The South African Nuclear Energy Corporation), PETLabs Pharmaceuticals, and visitors from Sweden attended the opening.

Prof. Andreas Roodt, Head of the Department of Chemistry, states the department’s specialist research areas includes X-ray crystallography, electrochemistry, synthesis of new molecules, the development of new methods to determine rare elements, water purification, as well as the measurement of energy and temperatures responsible for phase changes in molecules, the development of agents to detect cancer and other defects in the body, and many more.

“We have top expertise in various fields, with some of the best equipment and currently competing with the best laboratories in the world. We have collaborative agreements with more than twenty national and international chemistry research groups of note.

“Currently we are providing inputs about technical aspects of the acid mine water in Johannesburg and vicinity, as well as the fracking in the Karoo in order to release shale gas.”

New equipment installed during the upgrading action comprises:

X-ray diffractometers (R5 million) for crystal research. Crystals with unknown compounds are researched on an X-ray diffractometer, which determines the distances in angstroms (1 angstrom is a ten-billionth of a metre) and corners between atoms, as well as the arrangement of the atoms in the crystal, and the precise composition of the molecules in the crystal.
Differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) for thermographic analyses (R4 million). Heat transfer and the accompanying changes, as in volcanoes, and catalytic reactions for new motor petrol are researched. Temperature changes, coupled with the phase switchover of fluid crystals (liquid crystals -watches, TV screens) of solid matter to fluids, are measured.
Nuclear-magnetic resonance (NMR: Bruker 600 MHz; R12 million, one of the most advanced systems in Africa). A NMR apparatus is closely linked with the apparatus for magnetic resonance imaging, which is commonly used in hospitals. NMR is also used to determine the structure of unknown compounds, as well as the purity of the sample. Important structural characteristics of molecules can also be identified, which is extremely important if this molecule is to be used as medication, as well as to predict any possible side effects of it.
High-performance Computing Centre (HPC, R5 million). The UFS’ HPC consists of approximately 900 computer cores (equal to 900 ordinary personal computers) encapsulated in one compact system handling calculations at a billion-datapoint level It is used to calculate the geometry and spatial arrangements, energy and characteristics of molecules. The bigger the molecule that is worked with, the more powerful the computers must be doing the calculations. Computing chemistry is particularly useful to calculate molecular characteristics in the absence of X-ray crystallographic or other structural information. Some reactions are so quick that the intermediary products cannot be characterised and computing chemistry is of invaluable value in that case.
Catalytic and high-pressure equipment (R6 million; some of the most advanced equipment in the world). The pressures reached (in comparison with those in car tyres) are in gases (100 times bigger) and in fluids (1 500 times) in order to study very special reactions. The research is undertaken, some of which are in collaboration with Sasol, to develop new petrol and petrol additives and add value to local chemicals.
Reaction speed equipment (Kinetics: R5 million; some of the most advanced equipment in the world). The tempo and reactions can be studied in the ultraviolet, visible and infrared area at millisecond level; if combined with the NMR, up to a microsecond level (one millionth of a second.

Typical reactions are, for example, the human respiratory system, the absorption of agents in the brain, decomposition of nanomaterials and protein, acid and basis polymerisation reactions (shaping of water-bottle plastic) and many more.

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