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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

During 2011: Sport
2011-12-01

Our sports stars set their gaols high and with hard work, dedication a good measure of determination they show that they will not give up until these goals are met. A place in the national team or a medal or award in hand is enough proof that our Kovsie sportsmen and women are serious about their successes on the sports field.

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Some of our stars this year were:

Athletics:

Thuso Mpuang, our Kovsie Sportsman of the year, represented South Africa during the World Athletic Championships in Deague, Korea. He obtained the silver medal in the 200m during the World Student Games in Shenzhen, China and a gold medal as a member of the 4 x 100m relay team.

Janette Siebert represented South Africa during the Southern Africa Championships in Maputo, Mozambique.

Boy Soke represented South Africa during the Africa Cross Country Championships in Cape Town. He also represented South Africa during the World Cross Country Championships in China.


Cricket:

The 21-year-old former Kovsie, Obus Pienaar, who was still playing cricket for our university club until the end of the season (end of March), has been playing abroad for the Irish cricket club Waringstown from the end of April 2011.
We are proud of Obus’ achievements, in particular his contribution to the match against the CIYMS. During this game, Obus hit the highest score ever in the Northern Cricket Unions when he scored 244 runs in only 114 balls. This included 22 sixes and 13 fours. During his innings in this match, Obus also broke the July 2004 record of his compatriot, AB de Villiers of the Proteas.


Hockey:

Lesley Ann George represented the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the series against China, Belgium and Azerbaijan. She was also a member of the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the Champs Challenge in Ireland. The team finished fifth.

Nicole de Vries represented the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the series against China, Belgium and Azerbaijan. She was also a member of the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the Africa Cup in Bulawayo. The team obtained a gold medal.

Hettie Oosthuizen represented the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the series against China, Belgium and Azerbaijan.

Izelle Lategan represented the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the series against China, Belgium and Azerbaijan.

Nicole Kemp was a member of the Protea Women’s Hockey Team during the Africa Cup in Bulawayo. The team obtained a gold medal.


Karate:

Elsabe le Roux was a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the Africa Zone 6 Championships in Maputo where she obtained a gold and silver medal.

Bruno Schwalbach was a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the Africa Zone 6 Championships in Maputo where he obtained two gold medals. He was also a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the Common Wealth Karate Championship in Australia where he obtained one silver and two bronze medals. He was a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the All Africa Games in Maputo Mozambique where he obtained a bronze medal.

Balungile Nchofe was a member of the Protea JKA Shotokan Karate Team that participated in the Africa Zone 6 Championship in Maputo, where he obtained a gold medal.


Netball:

Kovsies’ netball team has performed well over the past year with, amongst others, the inclusion of players in the SA Universities World-cup Group.

Karla Mostert and Maryka Holtzhausen participated during the World Cup in Singapore in the SPAR SA Protea team.

We are also proud of the eight players who have been included in the SA team. They are Zimari Smit, Sheri Duimpies, Ane Botha, Danique du Toit, Nieke Loubser, Karla Mostert, Fikile Mkhuzangwe and Lauren-lee Christians.

At the SA tournament, Ane Botha was named as the centre-court player of the tournament, whilst Karla Mostert was named as the best defending player. Karla has also been included in the SPAR SA Protea team to the All African Games, which start in Mozambique at the end of August.


Rugby:

Boom Prinsloo and Robert Ebershohn are representing the Springboks in the HSBC Sevens World Series.


Soccer:

Gabisile Hlumbane, our Kovsie Sportswomanof the year, is a member of the Banyana Banyana National Soccer Team. The team obtained a bronze medal at the African Women’s Championships during October 2010, a gold medal at the Unity Cup Hosted during December 2010, a silver medal at the COSAFA Women’s Championship hosted during July 2011 and qualified for the London Olympics in 2012.


Squash:

Paul Rodrigues represented the South African U/ 23 team at the All Africa Squash Championships in Johannesburg.


Triathlon:

Nelmaré Loubser represented the SA Elite Team during the World Championships in Spain.

 

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