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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

SRC visits the US as part of Global Leadership Preparation Programme
2012-06-07

The Student Representative Councils (SRC) of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Bloemfontein and Qwaqwa Campuses will be travelling to the United States from 10-24 June 2012 on an intensive leadership development programme.

The Global Leadership Preparation Programme, initiated by the Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof. Jonathan Jansen, has been designed to ensure that South Africa’s next generation of leaders understand their unique place in a global context, the interconnectedness of global and local society and various possibilities for change.
 
The group of 36 students will be visiting Washington DC, Boston and New York.
 
“As a university we recognise that students who lead on campus must be prepared to also lead the country, which requires amongst others greater understanding of the impact and influence of global developments (social, economic, political) on nation states and campuses. This includes knowledge to deepen democratic participation and real representation – issues we know that often are contested in important student governance structures such as SRCs,” says Mr Rudi Buys, Dean of Student Affairs.
 
The group will be studying among others the impact, influence and limits of the United Nations in global leadership; the impact of transnational companies on economic policies of African countries; the impact of American universities on African leadership; the impact of international philanthropy on African development and the impact of American public institutions on learning among the disadvantaged: lessons for South Africa.
 
The programme complements and strengthens other leadership preparation programmes of the UFS, such as the Leadership for Change Programme and the Gateway College Programme – an intensive orientation programme for all undergraduate students. It will give students a competitive advantage in leadership over more local programmes and initiatives that seldom look beyond the campus, or even beyond the country, in preparing the next generation of leadership.
 
“We value this initiative by the university leadership to give us the opportunity to explore and spread our wings and gather as much knowledge as we can get to raise the bar in terms of student governance and leadership. The university is amongst the few in the country that sees the need to strengthen and develop its student leadership by exposing it and allowing it to understand its role in a global context. This is a chance that we take seriously and we intend to use it to the betterment of the institution,” says Bongani Ngcanga, President of the Central SRC.
 
“While we welcomed the initiative taken by the university to design this programme, the SRC questioned and debated heavily on the merits and real contribution of such a programme. Only on approval of the academic and development profile of the programme did we accept its merits and now are excited about the value thereof. This opportunity goes beyond the term of the SRC and will develop and equip us for the great positions we will hold in the future. I am looking forward to meeting influential lobbyists, profound academics and strong politicians,” says Richard Chemaly, SRC President of the Bloemfontein Campus.
 
Upon their return, the SRCs will set a new benchmark for future councils, raising the bar to that of internationally acclaimed student leadership. One of the objectives of the programme is to produce written, reflective statements about the learning that resulted from the trip and to start dialogues in order to improve student governance and governance as a whole. Workshops will also be presented for aspirant student leaders on leadership lessons learnt from an international perspective.
 
Members of the SRCs are covering part in the cost of the programme and generous contributions have also been received from outside the university.

Media Release
07 June 2012
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Director: Strategic Communication
Tel: +27(0)51 401 2584
Cell: +27(0)83 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

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