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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS Winter Graduation Ceremony
2012-06-18

UFS awards record number of master’s degrees and doctorates

The University of the Free State (UFS) celebrated an increase in postgraduate successes with a record number of master’s degrees and doctorates that were awarded during the winter graduation ceremony at the Bloemfontein campus on Thursday 14 June 2012.

A total of 481 master’s degrees and 82 doctorates were awarded in two ceremonies in the Callie Human Centre on the Bloemfontein Campus. This is the most postgraduate qualifications to be awarded at a single graduation ceremony.

DiMTEC has reason to celebrate

Dr Andries Jordaan (second from right) with some of the people who received their master's degrees. From the left are Kehinde Balogun, the couple Olive Chisola-Darris en Clement West Darris, and the couple Everson Ndlovu en Patience Sibongile Ndlovu.
Photo: Leatitia Pienaar
18 June 2012

DiMTEC had reason to celebrate at the winter graduation ceremony. The Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa delivered a healthy crop of 32 master’s degrees and one doctorate.

This was the most master’s degrees that the centre has been awarded at one opportunity. The doctorate, however, was not at DiMTEC – Andries Jordaan, the director of the centre, obtained his Ph.D. in Agricultural Economy.

It was also the first time that two couples received their master’s degrees at the centre at the same time.

Speaking at the event, Dr Jordaan said former students of the centre were using their expertise worldwide. Some of them are in senior positions at the United Nations, in African countries, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. DiMTEC’s students hail from 17 African countries, including French-speaking countries.

“I am proud that we have a footprint right across Africa,” he said.

Three travel all the way from Europe for their MBAs

Smiles on an important day. From the left are: Kasina Baker, Friederike Hackelberg, and Johanna Kössler and her parents and sister.
Photo: Stephen Collett
18 June 2012
No distance, time or money could prevent three MBA graduates from Europe from attending the winter graduation ceremony in Bloemfontein. Two of them were exchange students who were so captivated by the university and the country that they undertook their MBA studies at the Business School.

Friederike Hackelberg of Bremen, Germany, was an exchange student in 2008 and extended her stay to do an MBA. Johanna Kössler of Bolzano, Italy, was also an exchange student who succumbed to the charms of the UFS and South Africa. She brought her parents, George and Nannie, and her sister, Magdalena, with her to attend the graduation ceremony.

Kasina Baker of Warsaw, Poland, began her studies while her husband was working in Kenya. She wanted to study at a quality institution and thus chose the UFS's Business School.

Jessica gets three prestigious medals

Jessica Potgieter (right) was the first student in almost three decades to receive three prestigious medals at the Winter Graduation Ceremony. She received the Dean's medal as best Master's student in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, the Senate Medal as best Master's student at the university and the Award for Scientific Achievement by the South African Association for the Advancement of Science. She is seen here with her mother, Mrs Ilse van Rhyn, and Dr Khotso Mokhele, Chancellor.
Photo: Johan Roux
18 June 2012
Three daughters, three degrees for proud Kovsie mom
Liezel Alsemgeest and Adri Kotzé.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs
18 June 2012

Adri Kotzé, Faculty Manager in the Faculty of Law, is a very proud parent. In the course of one year, all three her daughters will receive degrees from the University of the Free State (UFS). First in line is the eldest, who received her Ph.D. in Business Management at the Winter Graduation Ceremony.

Liezel is a lecturer in the Department of Business Management at the UFS, where she lectures, publishes and hopes to further her research in finance. “I enjoy working at the university because you have the freedom to do your own thing and focus on whatever you like,” she says.

The title of Liezel’s thesis is Customers’ perception of business units within an agricultural business in South Africa. Her focus is on the subjects of customer satisfaction and financial management, with a specific focus on the management of agricultural businesses.

Middle sister Corné will be graduating with a master’s degree in Occupational Therapy in December, while the youngest, Adéle, will receive her B.A. in Media Studies and Journalism at the Autumn Graduation Ceremony in 2013.

“I am very proud of all three my daughters,” says Adri.

Sasolburg minister receives Dean's Medal for best master's degree in Theology
Rev. Frans Redelinghuys.
18 June 2012

Rev. Frans Redelinghuys of the Reformed Church in Sasolburg received his master’s degree in Theology at the University of the Free State’s Winter Graduation Ceremony. Rev. Redelinghuys was also awarded the Dean’s Medal as the best master’s degree student in the Faculty of Theology.

The focus of his dissertation is Spirituality. “My lecturers are all people who practice what they preach and they have shared their knowledge with me.,” he says.

“My studies also contributed to my personal development,” says Rev. Redelinghuys.

Student from the Netherlands receives degree at UFS Winter Graduation Ceremony

Deborah Van den Bosch-Heij.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs
18 June 2012

Deborah Van den Bosch-Heij from the Netherlands was awarded a Ph.D. at the Winter Graduation Ceremony by the Faculty of Theology of the University of the Free State (UFS). Her thesis, Spirit and healing in Africa: A reformed pneumatological perspective, is an interdisciplinary investigation of the relationship between the Holy Spirit and healing in Southern Africa. The research addresses the need for a reviewed and contextually reformed approached to healing.

Deborah started her career as a minister at the Valkenburg Congregation of the Protestant Church in the Netherlands in 2001. She was appointed by the missionary department of her church to lecture at the Justo Mwale Theological University College in Lusaka, Zambia in 2005. It was here that she decided on the topic of her thesis. Prof. Rian Venter from the Department of Systematic Theology at the UFS, who is also involved at the Justo Mwale College, is Deborah’s promoter and assisted her in her studies whilst she was in the Netherlands. It was also Prof. Venter who made Deborah aware of the importance of interdisciplinary research.

Well-known judge's granddaughter receives degree

Judge Joos Hefer and Annelie de Man.
Photo: Leonie Bolleurs

Annelie de Man, a law researcher at the Supreme Court of Appeal in Bloemfontein received her master’s degree at the Winter Graduation Ceremony of the University of the Free State (UFS). She is Judge Joos Hefer’s granddaughter. Annelie was also awarded the Dean’s Medal as the best master’s degree student in the Faculty of Law.

“Today is one of the biggest highlights in my career,” says Annelie, who received exposure to the field of law from a young age.

In September, she will be leaving for Italy to study for a master’s degree in European Human Rights at the European Inter University.

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