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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Applications for the Vice-Chancellor's Prestige Programme for 2013/2014 now open
2012-12-06

This highly prestigious programme, led by the Vice-Chancellor of the University of the Free State, seeks to identify, develop and promote the next cohort of the most promising and talented UFS academic members of staff who obtained a doctoral degree within the last five years. These are young scholars who have chosen academic careers and who are focused and determined to become senior academics in their respective disciplines.

Once identified, these scholars will be put through an intensive programme of academic and scholarship support that includes an advanced residential programme, exposure to leading scholars, intensive reading and writing programmes, high-level seminar participation and presentation, nuanced publication schedules and personal mentoring and advice.

The selection process is highly competitive, and aimed at those young scholars with the potential to obtain upper-level ratings (Y1 and P).  The selection criteria include the following:(1)

1. Recently obtained a PhD degree.
2. Evidence of an active publication record.
3. Early recognition of scholarly work, e.g. successful funding/grant applications and academic awards.
4. The early development of a post-doctoral intellectual project that shows evidence of scholarly “potential” (defined by the NRF Y-category).
5. Indication of the young scholar’s understanding of what their envisaged postdoctoral endeavours will contribute to the body of knowledge.
 
This period of support will run over a cycle of two years after which a new intake of next generation professors will be selected.
 
While this cohort will be selected for an intensive programme, ongoing development and support of all young scholars will continue. The selected scholars will reflect a balance of young academics from the humanities (broadly defined, including education, law, theology and the social sciences) and the natural sciences (broadly defined, including the agricultural and health sciences).
 
Call for Applications
This is a call for applications for the Vice-Chancellor’s Prestige Programme for 2013/2014. Candidates are invited to submit applications. No nomination is required, but deans and heads of department will also be asked to invite young scholars to apply.  Complete applications are due by Monday 21 January 2013. A full application will include the following documentation:

1. A complete curriculum vitae of the candidate.
2. A complete exercise of intent comprising the following:
2.1   Select two journal articles (copies of which to accompany the application) in the area you have identified for your intellectual focus post PhD. These articles have to be selected from journals of international standing in your field.
2.2   The articles need to be summarised (250 words each), and
2.3   Two questions have to be identified that you would want to pursue in relation to your intended project. 
2.4   This is followed by a brief, critical summary of a hundred lines maximum to indicate how these articles inform, integrate or provoke your planned future research.

Submission and contact address
A paper copy of the application must be submitted to the Vice-Chancellor’s secretary, Ms Melissa Coetzee, in the Main Building by 16:00 on Monday 21 January 2013 and an electronic copy of your entire application to the administrative assistant, Mr Albert Nell:nella@ufs.ac.za. You will be contacted to acknowledge receipt. Candidates will be informed of the outcome in February. Further information on the Vice-Chancellor’s Prestige Scholar Programme can be directed at any of the following co-directors (in alphabetical order):

Prof Jackie du Toit, Prof Neil Roos, Prof Aldo Stroebel or Prof Corli Witthuhn.
 
[1] The VC reserves the right to nominate young scholars to the programme and also to invite scholars to a panel interview to evaluate personal qualities, professional commitment and academic ambition.

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