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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Open Day engulfs Bloemfontein Campus with colour, crowds and cheer
2013-05-04

 

08 May 2013
Photo: Lelanie de Wet


   Open Day YouTube video

The procession – comprising of Prof Jonathan Jansen and the Deans of all the UFS faculties – stately entered a packed Callie Human Centre on Saturday morning 4 May 2013. As everyone took their seats, all the lights were abruptly cut, leaving the hall in a stunned silence. Suddenly brilliant beams of green, blue and red lights cut through the dark, exploding into a spectacular laser show.

Open Day 2013 on the Bloemfontein Campus was officially under way.

The audience of parents and prospective students were awe-struck by a transfixing electric guitar performance, dancers lit up by LED suits, pulsing music and finally Corneil Muller singing to the accompaniment of Prof Jansen behind the piano.

Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof Jansen immediately made attendees from across all nine provinces, Namibia, Lesotho and several other countries feel at home and embraced by the university. During his welcoming address, Prof Jansen referred to the fact that Kovsies places the bar high when it comes to achievement. “We expect more of our students,” he said. “Passing is not important, passing wéll is important.” He stressed that at the university we teach students to be decent, to be exceptional people. “We place a high premium on being an outstanding human being.” He went on to say that our students are better than the previous generation – they do not carry the baggage of the old.

Prof Jansen also communicated the university’s commitment to developing leaders with an understanding of the world. This is why the university afford students the opportunity, amongst other things, to study abroad. Students have access to a wide variety of organisations and the privilege to have access to leaders who they can converse with. Kovsies strives to produce leaders, not only in the community, but on a global platform.

To demonstrate this last point, top Kovsie achievers joined Prof Jansen on stage to relay their stories of perseverance, courage and success. Included among these stars, were athlete Danél Prinsloo; Varsity Cup Player that Rocks 2013 Oupa Mohoje; DW Bester, a Rhodes Scholar currently studying at Oxford University in the United Kingdom; and Jurie Swart, who ranked under the top five in the 2012 International Graduate Architecture Student Design competition.

The residences pulled out all stops when it came to the presentation of their individual stalls. The gardens in front of the Main Building burst with colour, sound, dancing and laughter as the residences competed to draw the most visitors. The faculties also opened their doors for a glimpse at the exciting opportunities awaiting prospective students.

A record amount of visitors went home with the words of Rudi Buys, Dean of Student Affairs, inscribed in their minds summing up what the UFS is all about: “Where a sense of community matters more than the colour of your skin.”

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