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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Postgraduates’ new Kovsies home
2013-05-10

 
Some of the guests attending the launch, included from left: Prof Driekie Hay, Vice-Rector: Academic, Dr Henriette van den Berg, Director: Postgraduate School and Prof Corli Witthuhn, Vice-Rector: Research.
10 May 2013
Photo: Johan Roux

Postgraduate students and their academic 'parents' at the University of the Free State (UFS) now have a dedicated physical, emotional and electronic space to provide for their specialised needs in order to further promote research excellence at the UFS.

The university's Postgraduate School was launched in May 2011, but ventured further in the quest to fulfil and expand its mandate with new initiatives. These different aspects of the school were launched on Wednesday 8 May 2013 in the CR Swart Auditorium on the Bloemfontein Campus. The postgraduate strategy, postgraduate prospectus, the website and the headquarters of the Postgraduate School in the Johannes Brill Building were all unveiled and launched.

Prof Driekie Hay, Vice-Rector: Academic, who was a major driving force behind the formation of the Postgraduate School, during her address at the opening emphasised the multifaceted and unique relationships which often exist between students and supervisors.

Prof Hay, who has a distinguished academic background in postgraduate teaching, made plain her expectations for the Postgraduate School. She said it aims to "create an intellectual space for postgraduate students and supervisors" in order to produce world-class intellectuals at this university.

She said the school will empower both students who often don't know what to expect from supervision, as well as supervisors who often lack supervision skills. Through this it will be possible to create healthy, productive relationships between the distinct pairs in often misunderstood, unbalanced and intricate interactions.

Dr Henriette van den Berg, Director of the Postgraduate School, introduced the strategic plan of the school and emphasised the great strides that have already been made and what still needs to be done at the UFS in terms of postgraduate teaching. According to her, the Postgraduate School aims towards "holistic development of postgraduate students with transferable skills," through a multi-level and institution-wide approach at the university.

"Our aim is to develop a one-step service for postgraduate students, involving all the different stakeholders," she said.

The new Postgraduate School website was also showcased during the event. Reachable through a number of avenues on the main website, the site offers a digital version of the Johannes Brill Building. Brimming with features catering specifically for local, international, current and prospective students, the website provides crucial information.

The Johannes Brill Building's refurbished interior, with staff offices, seminar rooms and social spaces, were also showcased to UFS' staff and students. The initial phase of the Supervisors' Wall of Fame was also unveiled. According to Dr van den Berg , the wall will after completion bestow much-deserved praise on a hand-picked group of 60 supervisors who have respectively been responsible for more than 300 and more than 500 successful PhD and master's candidates over the past decade.

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