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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Stress and fear on wild animals examined
2013-06-04

 

Dr Kate Nowak in the Soutpansberg Mountain
Photo: Supplied
04 June 2013

Have you ever wondered how our wild cousins deal with stress? Dr Kate Nowak, visiting postdoctoral researcher at the Zoology and Entomology Department at the UFS Qwaqwa Campus, has been assigned the task to find out. She is currently conducting research on the effects that stress and fear has on primate cognition.

The Primate and Predator project has been established over the last two years, following Dr Aliza le Roux’s (also at the Zoology and Entomology Department at Qwaqwa) interest in the effects of fear on primate cognition. Dr le Roux collaborates with Dr Russel Hill of Durham University (UK) at the Lajuma Research Centre in Limpopo and Dr Nowak has subsequently been brought in to conduct the study.

Research on humans and captive animals has indicated that stress can powerfully decrease individuals’ cognitive performance. Very little is known about the influence of stress and fear on the cognition of wild animals, though. Dr Nowak will examine the cognition of wild primates during actual risk posed by predators. This is known as the “landscape of fear” in her research.

“I feel very privileged to be living at Lajuma and on top of a mountain in the Soutpansberg Mountain Range. We are surrounded by nature – many different kinds of habitats including a tall mist-belt forest and a variety of wildlife which we see regularly, including samangos, chacma baboons and vervet monkeys, red duiker, rock hyrax, banded mongooses, crowned eagles, crested guinea fowl and cape batis. And of course those we don't see but find signs of, such as leopard, genet, civet and porcupine. Studying the behaviour of wild animals is a very special, and very humbling, experience, reminding us of the diversity of life of which humans are only a very small part,” said Dr Nowak.

At present, the research team is running Giving up Densities (GUD) experiments. This represents the process during which an animal forsakes a patch dense with food to forage at a different spot. The animal faces a trade-off between meeting energy demands and safety – making itself vulnerable to predators such as leopards and eagles. Dr le Roux said that, “researchers from the US and Europe are embracing cognitive ecology, revealing absolutely stunning facts about what animals can and can’t do. Hence, I don’t see why South Africans cannot do the same.”

Dr Nowak received the Claude Leon Fellowship for her project. Her research as a trustee of the foundation will increase the volume and quality of research output at the UFS and enhance the overall culture of research. Her analysis on the effect that stress and fear have on wild primates’ cognition will considerably inform the emerging field of cognitive ecology.

The field of cognitive ecology is relatively new. The term was coined in the 1990s by Les Real to bring together the fields of cognitive science and behavioural ecology.


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