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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS helps to renovate schools
2005-10-10

Photo gallery

About 250 hostel students of the University of the Free State's (UFS) main campus yesterday painted and renovated four schools in the black townships of Bloemfontein.  This was part of Kovsie Rag's new approach to be more directly involved with communities.

Students were transported with busses and performed tasks such as the painting of class rooms and outside walls and the cleaning and painting of gutters and window panes.  The painting was judged by a panel of judges, that included the Rector and Vice-Chancellor, Prof Frederick Fourie.  These points will contribute to the each hostel's final point in the Rag fund raising campaign for 2005/2006.

 

 

Some of the students who painted the gutters of Maboloka Primary School in Bochabelo were from the left Ms Tume Kowang (18) (first year student in B Accounting from NJ van der Merwe hostel); Ms  Gloria Mangwane (19) (third year student in B Sc Biochemy from NJ van der Merwe hostel); Ms Adri Ras (21) (second year student in Occupational Therapy from Emily Hobhouse hostel) and Ms Malandi Els (20) (third year student in B Exercise and Feeding from Emily Hobhouse hostel).

See attached media statement:

UFS Rag and Eimpa paints assist with upgrading of schools

The spirit of Ubuntu will this year be truly reflected in the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Rag community out reach programme when senior students from the 23 hostels on the Main Campus will visit four less-privileged schools in the Mangaung area on Saturday 8 October 2005 to assist these schools in the upgrading of facilities.

The same day (Saturday 8 October 2005) the UFS first year students will visit the neighbourhoods in Bloemfontein from 08:00-13:00 to raise funds on an Ubuntu donation lists for Rag 2005/2006.

The Ubuntu project was started about seven years ago and it has grown each year. In the past the project was associated with a fundraising leg and a hostel publicity leg.  This year the aim is to involve the community to demonstrate how important fundraising initiatives are to help those less-privileged. 
 
The schools that will be visited are Legae Intermediary School in Batho, Mothusi Primary School in Rocklands, and the Maboloka and Lesedi Primary Schools in Bochabelo.  The schools in the Manugaung area had until 31 August 2005 to complete a questionnaire identifying what assistance is needed.  The Rag office, with the help of professional consultants from Eimpa Paints, chose four schools and visited each one to determine material/s needed to complete the work. 

Eimpa Paints is a partner of the Ubuntu project and will be sponsoring all paint necessary to complete the work at the schools.  All other material/s needed will be supplied by the UFS Rag office.

The hostels are divided into project teams and will clean and paint gutters and window sills and paint the walls of classrooms and outside walls.  At Maboloka School for instance, a project team will also to paint a wall with colourful characters.

Media release
Issued by:  Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel:  (051) 401-2584
Cell:  083 645 2454
E-mail:  loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
7 October 2005

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