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DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Faculty of Law establishes unique panel of advisors
2005-11-11

Photo: Stephen Collett

Some of the panel members who attended the Collegium Iurisprudentium of the Faculty of Law at the UFS were from the left His Honorable Judge of Appeal Lex Mpati (Vice-President of the Supreme Court of Appeal), His Honorable Judge of Appeal Joos Hefer (former Chief Justice of South Africa), His Honorable Judge of Appeal Frits Brand (Supreme Court of Appeal) and Mrs Alet Ellis (lecturer at the UFS Faculty of Law).

At the back from left were Prof Johan Henning (Dean: Faculty of Law at the UFS), His Honorable Judge Faan Hancke (High Court of the Free State and chairperson of the UFS Council) and Adv Jannie Lubbe Sc.

The Faculty of Law at the University of the Free State (UFS) has established a panel of advisors comprising of all the honorary and extraordinary professors of the faculty.

“The faculty has been known for its excellent practice-orientated training as well as the involvement of law practitioners in the training of LL B-students,” said Prof Johan Henning, Dean of the Faculty of Law at the UFS.

“The faculty was greatly dependent on the services of advocate lecturers, full-time members of the Bar and Side Bar who lectured on a part-time basis at the faculty.  For this reason lecturing in the faculty was mainly done after-hours to part-time students,” said Prof Henning. 

With the shift in emphasis to full-time lecturing and the appointment of full-time lecturers, especially because of the increasing student numbers, the full-time LL B-programme and the increasing pressure on students for quality research inputs, a greater need for meaningful contributions of judges and senior law practitioners to the faculty was experienced.

“To comply with this urgent need, three honorary professors and nine extraordinary professors were appointed.  This group of experts deliver an indispensable contribution to the practice orientation of the faculty by means of formal lectures, public inaugural lectures and guest lectures, direct lectures to graduate and post-graduate students, participation in research projects and the  constant evaluation of lecturers, modules and the content of modules and learning material. The international exposure of students and lecturers is also promoted by their contribution,” said Prof Henning.
“A need to have the involvement of this special class of professors structured in a more organised way was identified and a decision was made to establish an advisory panel called Collegium Iurisprudentium.  It is a privilege to us that all the honorary and extraordinary professors accepted the invitation,” said Prof  Henning. 

The panel will provide the faculty with continuous, distinguished, practice- orientated capability and capacity as well as international expertise, not only for direct inputs to students but also to advise lecturers about the curriculum, the compilation of the content of the LL B and M module, learning material and others, as well as to strengthen the research capacity of the faculty.

“The panel will also deliver a decisive contribution to the faculty’s preparation for the constitutional audit of the Higher Education Quality Committee (HEQC) of the Council for Higher Education (CHE) that will take place in October 2006,” said Prof Henning. 

The Collegium Iurisprudentium, which has been formally constituted, comprises of:

Appeal Court Judge J J F Hefer,
Appeal Court Judge L Mpati
Appeal Court Judge F D J Brand
Appeal Court Judge I G Farlam
Prof B A K Rider
Judge S P B Hancke
Judge A Kruger
Judge D H van Zyl
Adv S J Naudé
Adv J Lubbe Sc
Prof M M Katz
Prof R J Cook
Mr S van de Merwe
Mr W van der Westhuizen
Mr D C M Gihwala

Media release
Issued by:Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel:  (051) 401-2584
Cell:  083 645 2454
E-mail:  loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
11 November 2005

 

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