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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Research project gives insight into the world of the deaf

2005-11-30

Mr Akach in conversation (using sign language) with his assistant Ms Emily Matabane. Photo: Lacea Loader

UFS research project gives insight into the world of the deaf

The Sign Language Division of the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Afro-Asiatic Studies and Language Practice and Sign Language has signed a bilateral research project with the universities of Ghent and Brussels to write a book on sign language.

“We want to compare the Belgium and South African sign languages with each other. The book will be about the deaf telling us about themselves and how they live. It will also focus on the use of story telling techniques and the grammar used by deaf people. We want to see if the hand forms and the grammatical markers and other linguistic features that deaf people from these two countries use are the same or not,” said Mr Philemon Akach, lecturer at the UFS Sign Language Division and coordinator of the research.

According to Mr Akach, the sign language community in South Africa, with about 600 000 deaf people who use South African Sign Language (SASL) as first language, is quite big. “Over and above the deaf people in South Africa, there are also the non-deaf who use SASL, like the children of deaf parents etc. This book can therefore be used to teach people about the deaf culture,” he added.

Another of Mr Akach’s achievements is his election as Vice-President of the newly established World Association of Sign Language Interpreters (WASLI). The association was established earlier this month during a conference in Worcester.

Mr Akach has been actively involved with sign language interpretation since 1986 and has been interpreting at the World Congress of the World Federation of the Deaf (WFD) since 1987. “My appointment as Vice-President of the WASLI is an emotional one. I have been involved with deaf people for so long and have been trying to create awareness and obtain recognition for sign language, especially in Africa,” said Mr Akach. WASLI is affiliated to the WFD.

According to Mr Akach there was no formal structure in the world to support sign language and sign language interpreters. “Now we have the backup of WASLI and we can convince governments in other African countries and across the world to support deaf people by supporting WASLI and therefore narrow the communication gap between the deaf and the hearing. My main aim as Vice-President is to endeavour for the recognition of sign language and spoken language interpreters as a profession by governments,” he said.

According to Mr Akach the formal training of interpreters is of vital importance. “Anybody who has a deaf person in his/her family and can communicate in sign language can claim that they are an interpreter. This is not true. It is tantamount to think that all mother tongue or first language speakers are interpreters. Likewise students who learn sign language up to whatever level and are fluent in signing, should still join an interpreter’s programme,” he said.

“Sign language interpreting is a profession and should be presented as an academic course alongside other spoken languages. The UFS has been taking the lead with sign language and spoken language interpretation and was the first university on the African continent to introduce sign language as an academic course,” he said.

“Although sign language has always been an unknown language to young people it has become quite popular in recent years. This year we had a total of 160 students at the Sign Language Section of the UFS and the numbers seem to increase steadily every year,” he said.

Mr Akach’s assistant, Ms Emily Matabane, is deaf and they communicate in sign language. Ms Matabane also handles the tutorials with students to give them hands-on experience on how to use sign language.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
30 November 2005

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