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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS and Mexico forge links

2006-03-30

Some of the guests attending the signing of the memorandum of agreement were in front from the left Prof Wijnand Swart (Chairperson: Centre for Plant Health Management at the UFS), His Excellency Mauricio de Maria y Campos (Ambassador of Mexico in Southern Africa), Prof Magda Fourie (Vice-Rector: Academic Planning at the UFS) and Dr José Sergio Barrales Domínguez (Rector of the University of Chapingo in Mexico).
Photo: Stephen Collett

UFS and Mexico forge links
The Centre for Plant Health Management (CePHMa) in the Department of Plant Sciences at the University of the Free State (UFS) is presenting its first international conference. The conference started yesterday and will run until tomorrow (Friday 31 March 2006) on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein.

The conference is the first on cactus pear (or prickly pear) in South Africa since 1995. It coincides with 2006 being declared as International Year of Deserts and Desertification by the United Nations General Assembly.

During the opening session of the conference yesterday a memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed between CePHMa and the University of Chapingo (Universidad Autonoma Chapingo) in Mexico. The signing ceremony was attended by the Ambassador of Mexico in Southern Africa, His Excellency Mauricio de Maria y Campos, the Rector of the University of Chapingo, Dr José Sergio Barrales Domínguez, and the Vice-Rector: Academic Planning of the UFS, Prof Magda Fourie, amongst other important dignitaries.

“South Africa and Mexico have a lot in common where agricultural practices in semi-arid areas and the role of the cactus pear are concerned,” said Prof Wijnand Swart, Chairperson of CePHMa at the opening of the conference.

He said that the MOU is the result of negotiations between CePHMa and the Ambassador of Mexico in Southern Africa over the past 12 months.

“The MOU facilitates the negotiation of international cooperative academic initiatives between the two institutions. This entails the exchange of students and staff members of the UFS, curriculum development, research and community service,” said Prof Swart.

“During the next two days, various areas of interest will be discussed. This includes perspectives from commercial cactus pear farmers in South Africa, the health management of cactus pear orchards, selection of new cultivars of cactus pear, and the nutritional and medicinal value of the crop,” said Prof Swart.

In his welcoming message Prof Swart explained that in recent years there has been increased interest in the cactus pear for the important role it can play in sustainable agricultural systems in marginal areas of the world. These plants have developed phenological and physiological adaptations to sustain their development in adverse environments.

“The cactus pear can serve as a life saving crop to both humans and animals living in marginal regions by providing a highly digestible source of energy, water, minerals and protein,” said Prof Swart.

“In an age when global warming and its negative impact on earth’s climate has become an everyday subject of discussion, the exploitation of salt and drought tolerant crops will undoubtedly have many socio-economic benefits to communities inhabiting semi-arid regions,” said Prof Swart.

“Plantations of cactus pear grown for fruit, forage and vegetable production, as well as for natural red dye produced from the cactus scale insect known as cochineal have, over the last two decades, been established in many countries in South America, Europe, Asia and Africa. The crop and its products have not only become important in international markets, but also in local markets across the globe,” said Prof Swart.

Detailed discussions on the implementation of the MOU will take place between CePHMa and the University of Chapingo after the conference.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
30 March 2006

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