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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Kovsies celebrate ‘model of humanity’
2013-07-19

 

Zelda la Grange
Photo: Sonia Small
19 July 2013

   Video clip (YouTube)

Photo gallery
UFS Mandela Day Pledge (pdf)
Zelda la Grange speech (pdf)

The University of the Free State (UFS) joined people around the globe in celebration of the fourth annual Nelson Mandela Day. Long-time Madiba confidant, Zelda la Grange, delivered the main address, inspiring the crowd with anecdotes gleaned from her intimate knowledge of the former president.

La Grange felt that the UFS as an institution can contribute greatly towards the upliftment of South African society.

“Your university has become what we hope for in South Africa – a transformed society whose purpose serves the greater good of humanity. Embrace and nurture what you have here under the leadership of Prof Jansen and his team. And influence society consciously, every day, in the same way as Madiba did for every day of the 67 years of his activism, and beyond.”

As UFS Vice-Chancellor and Rector, Prof Jonathan Jansen, aptly put it, the Kovsie celebrations aim to give thanks to Madiba as a ‘model of humanity’ and for what he has done for all South Africans.

Prof Jansen stressed that the importance of Mandela Day cannot be overstated.

"I think it is incredibly important because the real legacy of Nelson Mandela is that of a man who gave everything he had for the struggle to gain our freedom, our democracy and that we can get along as just human beings and not as a skin colour, a religion or as strangers," he said.

Events began with a clean-up operation by UFS volunteers, Zelda la Grange and the Bikers for Mandela Day, the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality and other sponsors. The team cleaned areas in Heidedal and Manguang before returning to the UFS Bloemfontein Campus.

Kicking off the campus section of the programme, UFS staff and students formed a ‘human chain’ on the Red Square as part of a wider initiative which was the brainchild of Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu – who was the main attraction of the 2012 Mandela Day activities at Kovsies.

The assembled ‘chain’ recited the UFS Mandela Day pledge, whilst snaking around the Red Square and the gardens surrounding the Main Building, before offering interfaith prayers to Madiba in honour of the 67 minutes of selflessness epitomised by Nelson Mandela Day.

To conclude the first part of the celebrations, the No Student Hungry campaign’s patrons, Mrs Grace Jansen and Dr Carin Buys, released symbolic doves and joined the chain in the singing of the national anthem.

Rudi Buys, Dean of Student Affairs, said that the symbolic chain showed the UFS community’s aim to “join together as a country and show our commitment to our people” on the special day.

Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality Executive Mayor, Thabo Manyoni, together with Prof Jansen, welcomed UFS staff and students to the main festivities which centred around a coin-laying ceremony in front of the Main Building. All proceeds of the coin laying are to be contributed towards the NSH. More than R83 000 was raised through the coin-laying ceremony and donations, more than double the amount of 2012.

The jubilant crowd was edged on by OFM presenter, Johrné van Huyssteen, who offered to preside as master of ceremonies free of charge as part of his 67 minutes.

Manyoni stressed that Mandela Day is a celebration and should be regarded as a joyous occasion. He said that Madiba’s ability to take action and inspire change, is the foremost aspect of his legacy, one all South Africans should strive to emulate.

“We should all be the champions in the areas where we are. There can never be another Madiba, but we should all aim to be smaller, better Madibas,” he said.

Zelda la Grange emphasised the life-changing influence Madiba has had on her own life, as well as South Africa in general.

“Mandela Day is a call to action for individuals, for people everywhere, to take responsibility for changing the world into a better place, one small step at a time, just as Mr Mandela did. It is a day of service,” she said.

According to her, certain key characteristics are responsible for Madiba’s vast reverence throughout the world, principles everyone should try to emulate. She mentioned his principles, simplicity, honesty, integrity, discipline and respect for other people even when opinions differ, as the foremost of these qualities.

La Grange also stressed that the goodwill shown on Mandela Day should not be limited to one day in a year, but that we should all strive to live each day according to these principles.

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