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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Association of Former SRC Presidents – first of its kind

2013-08-19

Some of the former SRC presidents who attended the inaugural dinner were, from the left: Roelf Meyer, Bloemfontein Campus 1970; Dr More Chakane, Qwaqwa Campus 1990; vice-chairperson of the AFSP; Dr Anchen Laubscher, first woman president of the Bloemfontein Campus 2003; and Prof Voet du Plessis, Bloemfontein Campus 1967/8.
Photo: Stephen Collett
19 August 2013

The University of the Free State (UFS) made history this weekend with the establishment of its Association of Former SRC Presidents (AFSP) – the first association of its kind after the merging and incorporation of public institutions in 2003–2004.

Twenty-two former SRC presidents attended the inaugural dinner to launch the association on Women's Day, Friday 9 August 2013, and recognised especially the attendance of all four female presidents that previously chaired the SRC. Other guests included former rectors and chairpersons of the UFS Council, as well as chairpersons of the Alumni.

The attending presidents served during the period 1967–2012, either at the former University of the Orange Free State (UOFS), the Qwaqwa Campus of the former University of the North, South Campus of the former Vista University and the University of the Free State.

“Your very personal narratives as former student leaders during the troubled past of our history in South Africa matter most as you design the questions for and purpose of an authentic conversation with student leaders today – this will set your association apart from others," said Rudi Buys, Dean of Student Affairs.

Former SRC president of 1975/6 and now founding member and chairperson of the association, Dr Michiel Strauss, said that this is the opportunity for former student leaders to give back to the younger generation.

“It is true that many middle-aged white South Africans have a deep sense of debt and obligation towards the youth of our country. We owe them an apology for the discrepancies of the past. This apology should be more than just words. Deeds of reconciliation and restitution must be seen.

“As for myself; I was president of the SRC of the then UOFS in the same period in which the biggest part of the youth of South Africa suffered so much in their struggle for freedom in our country.

“In my personal capacity, as well as in my official capacity as SRC president, I did nothing to try and understand and/or co-operate in the struggle of my peers. This fact haunts me until this day.

“The question then for people like me and so many others, is: Where do I invest my time and energy and passion for this country? Where will my contribution make a real difference? There is no better answer to this burning question than to invest in the human resources in our beloved South Africa, and more focused – to invest in the young people.

“There is something meaningful and beautiful happening at the UFS and it is now a leader in academic standards, reconciliation, leadership formation and nation building. I can think of no better place to make my small contribution,” Dr Strauss said.

“As former student leaders, we have a sense of purpose to contribute to the university and there is no better time to start than now. It is my privilege to be part of this great initiative and I look forward to what will be achieved,” said Dr More Chakane, deputy chairperson of AFSP and former SRC president of the Uniqwa Campus of the University of the North in 1990 (now the Qwaqwa Campus of the UFS).

Roelf Meyer, known for the prominent role he played in the negotiations to end apartheid in South Africa and chairperson of the Civil Society Initiative (CSI) of South Africa, said his time as a leader at the university has given him the opportunity to apply and use his skills and experience and share it with the new leaders of the institution. "The UFS is highly regarded because of the exceptional standards and excellence portrayed by its senior leadership. Where I can make a difference, I'll do it with pleasure and pride," he said. Meyer served as SRC president in 1970.

The association met on Saturday 10 August 2013 to adopt its interim constitution and consider operational matters, while also reaching agreement on its core functions in support of its purpose to transfer change leadership skills to incumbent student leaders and mediate meaningful contributions of Alumni to the growth of the university.

“We greatly value the declared intention of AFSP to work with the university to design meaningful and sustainable mentorship programmes to support and guide student leaders on campus, and have pledged our support in this regard,” said Buys.

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