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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Researchers urged to re-emphasise regeneration of grassroots
2013-10-23

23 October 2013

Institutions of higher learning have a critical role to play in the promotion and protection of indigenous knowledge systems. This is according to Dr Mogomme Masoga, UFS alumnus and Senior Researcher with the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA).

Dr Masoga was addressing the 6th annual Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS) Symposium at the University of the Free State’s Qwaqwa Campus.

“The time has come for local communities rich with knowledge to be taken seriously by the researchers doing their work in those respective communities,” argued Dr Masoga.

“Power relations between the researcher and the communities involved in the research process should be clarified. The same applies to the ownership and control of knowledge generated and documented in a community.

“There is an increasing need for democratic and participatory development in our communities. This can be achieved by giving primacy to the interests, values and aspirations of the people at large. There must be a radical move from prevailing paradigm of development that suffers from relying on coercion and authoritarianism. There is a need to associate development with social needs. This will give validity and integrity to the local communities, thereby giving confidence to the leaders and their constituencies.”

Dr Masoga said that the time has come for African universities in particular to “de-emphasise factors that monopolise attention today. Factors like debt crisis, commodity prices and foreign investment, among others, must be replaced by emphasis on the regeneration of the grassroots. Many African universities and research institutions have not lived up to their responsibilities as guiding lights to the continent. However, all is not lost.

“The current global race for knowledge works against so-called developing countries, especially in Africa. There is a far greater need to have a code of ethics drawn up for researchers engaging with local communities, to ensure the promotion and protection of indigenous knowledge systems.”

Meanwhile, a cross-section of papers were also delivered during the symposium. These ranged from Moshoeshoe’s lessons in dealing with poverty alleviation as presented by Dr Samuel Mensah, Department of Economics, to indigenous grasses of Qwaqwa by Prof Rodney Moffett, Department of Plant Sciences. Also presenting lectures were Phephani Gumbi, African Languages; Tshele Moloi, School of Mathematics; Natural Sciences and Technology Education and Dr Tom Ashafa (Plant Sciences).

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