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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

PhD students’ voices reverberate across Africa and beyond
2014-01-14

 

Noel Ndumeya, Tinashe Nyamunda, Ivo Mhike and Anusa Daimon
Photo: Hannes Pieterse
The Centre of Africa Studies (CAS) has been recruiting the best young scholars from across the SADC region – with magnificent success. In the span of six months, four PhD students have excelled both on the African continent and abroad.

Anusa Daimon, Noel Ndumeya, Ivo Mhike and Tinashe Nyamunda – the names of these distinguished students. Set against the backdrop of global excellence and competition, they have been awarded several positions at conferences and already published world-wide.

Anusa Daimon’s PhD studies at the CAS focuses on Malawian migrants and their descendants in Southern Africa. It explores issues of identity construction and agency among this group.

Since his arrival at the CAS, Daimon has won two fully-funded awards to attend international conferences and workshops. He was invited to attend the Young African Scholars Conference at Cambridge University in the UK. He also went to Brazil to the IGK Work and Human Lifecycle in Global History Summer Academy. This workshop explored the historical and modern meanings and practices of work in terms of ‘freedom’ and ‘unfreedom’.

Noel Ndumeya holds a special interest in environmental history and the aspects of conservation and conflict. His PhD hones in on land and agrarian studies with specific focus on South Eastern Zimbabwe.

Ndumeya has won an award from the African Studies Association United Kingdom (ASAUK). This earned him an invitation to Nairobi, Kenya, to work with an editor from the Journal of Southern Africa Studies (JSAS).

Ivo Mhike’s research specialises in youth culture and their relationship with the state. In his PhD he uses juvenile delinquency as a window towards an analysis of social constructs of youth behaviour. This includes youth policy and their institutional and administrative links to the state.

Mhike has been invited to attend the CODESRIA Child and Youth Institute in Dakar, Senegal, with the theme: Social Protection and the Citizen Rights of Vulnerable Children in Africa.

Tinashe Nyamunda specialises in African Economic History. His PhD thesis is entitled, “The State and Finance in Rhodesia: A study of the evolution of the monetary system during the Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI), 1965–1979”.

Under the direction of his primary supervisor, Prof Ian Phimister and his secondary supervisor, Dr Andrew Cohen, four of his papers have been accepted for publication. Nyamunda also received sponsorship from the Rector’s Office for an edited book collection of which he is the leading author. The book focuses on the many aspects of Zimbabwe’s blood diamonds.

Recently, Nyamunda has contributed papers at conferences in Botswana and Scotland and attended a workshop at Lund University in Sweden. He has also received an invitation from Germany and Oxford to present some chapters of his PhD thesis.

“The centre has provided the best working environment any PhD student can dream of,” Nyamunda said. He continued to remark that the opportunities Prof Jonathan Jansen has created opened up immense possibilities for them.

“Given these fruitful experiences in just a year at the university,” Nyamunda said,” imagine what can be accomplished given the resources and environment availed by the institution.” The prospects after his PhD studies looks bright, he concluded, because of the opportunities provided by the UFS.

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