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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

International speakers discuss diversity

2014-02-11

Dr Charles Alexander from UCLA
Photo: O'Ryan Heideman

International and local experts recently gathered on the Bloemfontein Campus to deliberate over the topic of diversity.

Student participation and mobility dramatically increased in higher education worldwide. Cultural, political, economic and social factors on a national and global scale, have brought the reality of diversity into the operational spaces of Higher Education Institutions. These challenges are not exclusive to South Africa, though. In the Netherlands and USA, universities are also challenged by the demands of an increasingly diverse student population.

Prof Jonathan Jansen, Vice-Chancellor and Rector of the UFS, acted as one of the keynote speakers during a two-day colloquium hosted by the Institute for Reconciliation and Social Justice. In an impelling address, Prof Jansen argued that change cannot be affected on a university campus if the surrounding community does not change as well. He also noted the spread of a culture of silence surrounding issues of misbehaviour. He urged that we need to find courage again to speak out. From the level of government, media and churches to the private spaces of our homes, we have to co-create an environment of care.

This message closely tied in with that of Prof Shirley Tate’s from the University of Leeds. In her keynote, she asserted that mere tolerance of someone different from you can lead to even more alienation. The path to true reconciliation is grounded in the intimacy of friendship. Friendship and empathy lead to trust and transcend racism.

Another keynote speaker from abroad, Dr Charles Alexander from the University of California, delineated a model for inclusive excellence. He explained that the major problem of true transformation is not due to a lack of ideas, but in the implementation thereof. “Realities of implementation short circuit the change process,” he said. He explained how campus environments can adapt in order to support and enhance lasting inclusivity.

We have to become complicit in the process of transformation, Prof Dr Ghorashi, Professor of Diversity and Integration at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, conveyed. Linking up with the issue of silence, she demonstrated the power of speaking out, using examples from her extensive research among victims of violence. It is imperative, she maintains, that for transformation to materialise, we need to create safe spaces in which we can share our vulnerabilities.

Footnote: Due to unfortunate circumstances, both Prof Dr Ghorashi and Prof Shirley Tate could not personally attend the colloquium as planned. Their respective keynotes were read to the audience on their behalf.

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