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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

2014 Winter Graduation
2014-06-27

 
It is time for the 2014 Winter Graduation on our Bloemfontein Campus. From 2 – 4 July 2014 Masters and Doctoral degrees will be bestowed on graduates from across all seven faculties as well as the School of Open Learning. These include the conferral of Medicine degrees on the South African Cuban trainees.

Wednesday 2 July 2014 at 14:30: School of Open Learning
The School of Open Learning will confer a total of 609 degrees this year – almost double compared to the 320 of last year.

Thursday 3 July 2014 at 09:30: Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences
Prof Magdalena Blum will receive an Honorary Doctorat, DPhil honoris causa, at this event. Prof Blum is an Extension Systems Officer in Rome. She works for a specialised agency of the United Nations called the Food and Agriculture Organization. This organisation’s mandate is:
• to improve nutrition,
• increase agricultural productivity,
• raise the standard of living in rural populations and
• contribute to global economic growth.

Her position serves to modernise and strengthen rural advisory services, their systems and networks worldwide. She has filled this position for almost nine years.

Prof Blum is driven by a passion for development, humanitarian work and female upliftment, but most of all, to enable people to help themselves.

Blum’s life has taken her from a small German village to Africa, Asia and Europe – and she has made an impact wherever she went.

Thursday 3 July 2014 at 14:30: Faculties of Economic and Management Sciences, Humanities, Education, Health Sciences, Law and Theology
At this ceremony, Faculty of the Humanities will award an Honorary Doctorate, DPhil honoris causa, on Prof Laura Mulvey. She is a feminist film theorist and worked at the British Film Institute for many years. She is currently a professor at Film and Media Studies at Birkbeck, University of London.

Prof Mulvey was prominent as an avant-garde filmmaker in the 1970s and ‘80s. In collaboration with her husband, Peter Wollen, she co-wrote and co-directed:
• Penthesilea: Queen of the Amazons (1974),
• Riddles of the Sphinx (1977, perhaps their most influential film),
• AMY! (1980),
• Crystal Gazing (1982),
• Frida Kahlo and Tina Modotti (1982), and
• The Bad Sister.

In 1991, she returned to filmmaking with Disgraced Monuments, which she co-directed with Mark Lewis.

Friday 4 July 2014 at 10:30: Special Graduation Ceremony
Conferral of Medicine Degrees on the South African Cuban trainees at the UFS

Live streaming will be available on: http://www.ufs.ac.za/ufslivestreaming/

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