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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS implements access control measures on our Bloemfontein Campus

2014-11-21

Photo: Hannes Pieterse

Online Application form: non personnel

Map with access gates on the Bloemfontein Campus

Accessing the Bloemfontein Campus from 3 November 2014

Access control during major events on the Bloemfontein Campus

Q&A

The University of the Free State (UFS) has been tightening security measures on its Bloemfontein Campus for quite some time now. Purposefully, we have consolidated several safety measures to keep our students, staff and visitors – the heartbeat of our university – protected.

Our most significant step in this endeavour is now in the process of implementation. All five entrance gates to the campus are being equipped with strict access control.

The first phase of the process was implemented beginning of August 2014. Gates 2 (Badenhorst Street) and 4 (Furstenburg Street) were equipped with card readers. Only persons with valid access cards can enter and leave through these gates. Existing staff and student cards are equipped to be read by the short-distance card readers at the gates in order to activate the booms.

At this stage, staff and students are swiping their cards against the card readers at Gates 2 and 4 or holding it not further than 20 mm from the reader for the boom to open. Card holders now physically stop in front of the boom in order to get access to the campus.

The duel-frequency card:

The dual-frequency cards available at the Card Division on the Thakaneng Bridge are currently out of stock. New cards will be delivered on Friday 14 November 2014.

The special offer of R30 per access card has been extended to the end of November 2014. To qualify for this offer, staff and students may pay the R30 for a dual-frequency card at the bank or cashiers on the Thakaneng Bridge no later than 28 November. The cost of dual-frequency cards will increase to R60 per card from 1 December 2014.

Please note that only people with vehicles need to apply for dual-frequency cards.

Students and staff will, however, still be able to gain access to the Bloemfontein Campus with their current cards (in the case of staff and students who haven’t purchased dual-frequency cards yet). As is currently the practice at the gates in Furstenburg and Badenhorst Streets, you will have to stop when you reach the boom, swipe your card past the card reader, the boom will open and you will be able to drive through.

Staff and students using their dual-frequency cards should:

-       Reduce speed
-       Hold the card in a vertical position at the driver’s side window, in the direction of the long-distance reader (see photo)

It is therefore not necessary to stop in front of the boom. On holding your card upright, in line with the card reader, the gate will open automatically and you will be able to drive through (keep your card outside your window; the card reader cannot operate through tinted windows).

Please note that this arrangement only applies to incoming lanes. On leaving the campus, the card has to be swiped. This is due to the number-plate recognition technology installed at exits for additional security.

If the long-distance reader does not work, the dual-frequency card can still be used at a tag reader.

Applying for your new card:

Electronic fund transfers: Absa Bank: 1 570 8500 71, Ref: 1 413 07670 0198, OR pay the R30 at the UFS Cashiers, Thakaneng Bridge. Please note that the price of the cards will increase to R60 from 1 November 2014.

Take your existing personnel or student card, together with proof of payment, to the UFS Card Division, Bloemfontein Campus, Thakaneng Bridge, to have your photo taken and your new dual-frequency card issued.

Permission to access specific UFS buildings or facilities linked to your existing card, will be automatically linked to the new card.

The new card is marked ‘dual’ on the back in the right, bottom corner.

The UFS Cashiers will provide assistance between 09:00 and 14:30, and the UFS Card Division between 09:00 and 15:00.

Implementation of full access control

Full access control will be implemented on the UFS’s Bloemfontein Campus from 3 November 2014. This means that access control will be implemented at all gates on the Bloemfontein Campus.

Who is using which gate? See Q&A for more information.

Gate 3 (Wynand Mouton Drive) is earmarked for use by official card holders. These include students, staff and persons doing business on campus. Parents dropping and fetching their children for sports, as well as service providers of the UFS, such as architects, may apply for valid cards. These persons will have to provide proof that they have business on campus (complete online application form and sign declaration).

All visitors to the campus will be referred to the Visitor’s Centre at Gate 5 (DF Malherbe Drive). This include, among others, parents, family and friends of students, as well as conference delegates. It is estimated that the Visitor’s Centre will be completed at the end of November (note that the gate at DF Malherbe Drive will be operational by 3 November 2014). Visitors will sign in at the Visitor’s Centre and, depending on the business they have on campus, they will only be allowed on campus for a certain period of time.

•    Lane 1 at Gate 5 will be used by visitors and service providers to enter the campus. Only card holders will be able to use lane 2.
•    Buses and trucks can also enter the campus through Gate 5.

The construction at the Main Gate at Nelson Mandela Drive is to build one extra lane for incoming traffic. The project is estimated to be completed at the end of October 2014.

•    For outgoing traffic, lane 1 (furthest from the guardhouse) and lane 2 will only be used by card holders and lane 3 (closest to the booth) will be used by service providers.
•    For incoming traffic, lanes 2 and 3 were set aside for use by only service providers. Lanes 1 and 4 will be used by only card holders.

Pedestrians

All gates for motorists will also be equipped with a pedestrian thoroughfare on completion of the project. Persons using these pedestrian gates also need to use their cards to get access to the campus.

Pedestrians who are visitors, but aren’t in possession of a valid access card, should please go to the Visitor’s Centre at the gate in DF Malherbe Drive where they will be helped.

More information

For more information on access control at the UFS, please watch our videos and read the Q&A or e-mail your enquiries to accesscontrol@ufs.ac.za.

Issued by: Lacea Loader (Director: Communication and Brand Management)
Tel: +27(0)51 401 2584 | +27(0)83 645 2454
E-mail: news@ufs.ac.za

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