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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Researcher at Qwaqwa Campus, Dr Aliza le Roux, selected as SAYAS member
2014-09-12

 

Dr Aliza le Roux

Dr Aliza le Roux, senior lecturer in the Department of Zoology and Entomology on the Qwaqwa Campus of the University of the Free State (UFS), was selected as a member of the 2014 South African Young Academy of Science (SAYAS). Dr Le Roux, a member of the Vice-Chancellor's Prestige Scholars Programme at the UFS, is also a South African National Research Foundation-rated (NRF) scientist (Y2) and the winner of the UFS Vice-Chancellor’s Excellence in Teaching Award in 2013.

She sees her selection to SAYAS as a unique opportunity to help change the face of science in South Africa. Dr Le Roux hopes to use her skills as project leader in social media, as well as her own learning experiences on a rural campus, to inspire especially ecological research in a country so rich in its own natural heritage.

The SAYAS selection committee was impressed by the high level of academic merit and depth of the nominations they received. “Your membership is critical in contributing to many of the vital activities and functioning of SAYAS, and we look forward to your active contributions to the further development and growth of the Young Academy,” said Prof Aldo Stroebel, Chair: SAYAS Selection Committee.

Prof Corli Witthuhn, Vice-Rector: Research at the UFS, said, “Aliza le Roux is an outstanding young scientist on our Qwaqwa Campus. She is not only an outstanding researcher but has also received prizes during the past year for her dedication to teaching. I am very excited about the young researchers on our Qwaqwa Campus with Aliza as one of the leaders, and I am looking forward to what else they can achieve in the next five years.”

In the past decade, Dr Le Roux focused her research on the cognitive and communicative skills of wild mammals in South Africa and Ethiopia. She spent four years as a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Michigan, leading to ground-breaking research on the cognitive and communicative underpinnings of gelada monkey behaviour. Her current work encompasses an NRF-funded project on paternal care in bat-eared foxes, and experimental research on spatial cognition in wild samango monkeys. She is also involved in discussions with the Endangered Wildlife Trust to research the mitigation of road-kill incidents in South Africa.

Dr Le Roux hopes to combine cognitive ecology with more applied conservation questions in order to raise the profile of behavioural ecology as a discipline. She believes strongly in involving the public with scientific research, and has blogged for Nature Magazine on her adventures as field biologist. Her work has since found its way into numerous websites, magazine and newspaper articles and she has been interviewed on radio and BBC World.

Dr Le Roux will be inaugurated as SAYAS member on 14 October 2014.

Dr Marieka Gryzenhout from the Department of Plant Sciences is also a member of SAYAS.


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