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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Environmental management – the answer to a sustainable green economy
2014-11-03



From the left are: Tshepo Moremi (Deputy Director-General), Mamotena Puleni (Personal Assistant to the Deputy Director-General) and Prof Maitland Seaman (Head of Department: Centre for Environmental Management).

Photo: Ifa Tshishonge

As part of celebrating 20 years of existence, the Centre for Environmental Management at the University of the Free State (UFS) hosted a public lecture themed, ‘The Future of Environmental Management’. Mr Tshepo Moremi, Deputy Director-General of the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (Free State), portfolio Environment, Conservation and Tourism, delivered this lecture.

Mr Moremi said, “The environmental performance of South Africa must be seen in the context of our history and the country’s transition. South Africa has taken the lead in being a responsible global citizen, and we also participate in international projects in this field.”

South Africa hosts one of the richest biodiversities in the world. However, the country’s economy is still very energy - and carbon intensive.

“According to the World Health Organisation, approximately 16% of all deaths and one-third of diseases in children under the age of five years are environmentally related. Inadequate sanitation and indoor pollution are key factors,” Mr Moremi said.

“Academic institutions like the UFS and the government need to take the role of equipping citizens with skills and training so that we can overcome the challenges and seize opportunities related to the environment.

“Financing mechanisms for projects related to environmental sustainability were introduced in 2011. However, we still lack skilled capacity to run these projects smoothly and to use international and national funding strategically.

“Looking forward and responding to our challenges, it is vital that we transform our economy to be an international competitor and job-creation hub, and to be sustainably climate resilient, as outlined by the National Development Plan. Minimum standards will also be put in place to regulate emissions and monitor air quality. The sustainability of society’s well-being is important to the long-term role of environmental management in boosting our socio-economic status as a nation,” Mr Moremi said.

He emphasised that it must not only be about conserving and preserving. “Our people should benefit economically and socially,” he said.

Mr Moremi encouraged the audience to defend ideas that protect our non-speaking natural resources. “Let’s all do what we can and rise to this advocacy challenge,” he added. He also expressed his gratitude towards the university for honouring him during such a celebration and for working together in advocating for environmental issues.

The Centre for Environmental Management also hosted a strategic colloquium, discussing issues such as demography, resources, climate, water, environmental management, academic pursuance, as well as curriculum and the role of professional registration which may have an influence on the nature of its programmes.

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