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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS involved in project to light up the townships

2006-06-06

The parties involved with the project are from the left: Prof Hendrik Swart (Departmental Chairperson of the UFS Department of Physics), Dr Thembela Hillie (CSIR), Prof Neerich Revaprasadu (Department of Chemistry at the University of Zululand) and Dr Wynand Steyn (CSIR).

UFS involved in project that could light up the townships

The University of the Free State’s (UFS) Department of Physics is involved with a project that could make life easier in the townships through the use of artificial light.

“The project is based on the use of sunlight to activate nano material in for example cement and paint during the day. At night the cement or paint can then radiate light,” said Prof Hendrik Swart, Departmental Chairperson of the UFS Department of Physics.

According to Prof Swart an amount of R3,9 million has been made available by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) for the further development of the project.

Prof Swart visited the University of Florida in America in 1995 for a year where he researched luminescent phosphor material that is suitable for flat panel television screens. The red, green and blue spots on the television screens originate from these kinds of phosphor materials. “At that stage plasma television screens were only a dream. Today it is sold everywhere,” said Prof Swart.

“Upon my return I started a research group at the UFS which investigated the degrading of phosphor material. We also started to concentrate on the effectiveness of nano phosphors. In the mean time our cooperation with the Americans was strengthened with follow-up visits to America of my colleagues, Prof Koos Terblans and Mr Martin Ntwaeaborwa,” said Prof Swart.

“Nano phosphors are basically luminescent powders that consist of particles that are 1 millionth of a millimetre. These particles can provide light as soon as they are illuminated with, for instance, sunlight. The amount of time these particles can provide light, is determined by the impurities in the material,” said Prof Swart.

According to Prof Swart nano particles are developed and linked to infrastructure materials in order for these materials to be excited during the day by sunlight and then it emits light during night time.

“The nano material is of such a nature that it can be mixed with materials, such as paint or cement. The yellow lines of roads can for example emit light in a natural way during night time,” said Prof Swart.

About a year ago Prof Swart and Dr Thembela Hillie, a former Ph D-student of the UFS Department of Physics, had discussions with Prof Neerich Revaprasadu from the University of Zululand and the CSIR about the possibility of mixing these nano phosphor particles with other materials that can be used as light sources in the building of roads and houses.

“Prof Revaprasadu is also actively involved in the research of nano materials. Our efforts resulted in the CSIR approving the further extension of the project,” said Prof Swart.

“The UFS and the University of Zululand are currently busy investigating ways to extend the light emitting time,” said Prof Swart.

“There are eight M Sc and Ph D-students from the UFS and about five students from the University of Zululand working on this research project. The Department of Physics at the Qwaqwa Campus of the UFS, with Francis Dejene as subject head, is also involved with the project,” said Prof Swart.

According to Prof Swart the further applications of nano materials are unlimited. “Children whose parents cannot afford electricity can for instance leave any object such as a lamp, that is covered with these phosphor particles, in the sun during the day and use it at night as a light for study purposes,” said Prof Swart.

According to Prof Swart the further extension of the project will take about two years. “During this time we want to determine how the effectiveness of the phosphors can be increased. Discussions with the government and other role players for the possible implementation of the project are also part of our planning,” said Prof Swart.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za
6 June 2006

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