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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

University gets support to improve student success
2014-11-26

From the left are: Prof Francois Strydom (Director: Academic - Centre for Teaching and Learning at the UFS), Mr Rip Rapson (Chief Executive Officer, Kresge Foundation), Dr Marcus Ingram (UFS Director for Institutional Advancement) and Mr Bill Moses (Programme Director for the Kresge Foundation's Education Programme).
Photo: Hannes Pieterse

The Kresge Foundation has awarded $400 000 (about R4 million) to the University of the Free State (UFS) to increase student success through improved data analysis.

This four-year grant, as part of Kresge’s Siyaphumelela initiative, was recently announced by Mr Rip Rapson, Kresge’s President and Chief Executive Officer. This announcement was made at a symposium on South African higher education and philanthropy in Cape Town.

“Universities across South Africa are grappling with how to improve persistence and graduation rates for their black students in particular,” Mr Rapson said. “These universities will work together with the South African Institute for Distance Education to develop their data analytics capacity to find and share solutions and interventions based on solid information to improve student success.”

The UFS was only one of four universities receiving funding from Kresge. The other universities include the Nelson Mandela metropolitan University in Port Elizabeth, the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg and the University of Pretoria.

The grants will help the universities build their capacities to use data to better integrate institutional research, information communication technology, academic development, student services and academic departments. Beyond the improvements sought for the UFS, Kresge hopes to see new approaches to data become mainstream for higher education in South Africa.

The Siyaphumelela initiative provides four years of institutional support and hope to create a community of practice that learns lessons that may benefit not only individual institutions and the cohort, but also potentially all of South African higher education.

Dr Lis Lange, Vice-Rector: Academic at the UFS, said improving student successes is a university goal that operates in the interface between the Human and Academic Projects of the university.

“We are delighted to be part of an initiative that is going to help us develop greater capability for data analytics and deeper integration between data and teaching and learning practices; and, at the same time, will bring the Centre for Teaching and Learning, the Directorate for Institutional Research and Academic Planning (DIRAP) and the faculties into a closer cooperation.”

Over the past four years donor income to the UFS increased considerably, both from governmental sources, trusts and foundations. By the end of 2013, governmental funding increased from about R5 million in 2011 to over R35 million. Funding by trusts and foundations increased from R5 million in 2011 to over R15 million in 2013. A general increase of 25% in funding is expected for 2014.

Dr Marcus Ingram, UFS Director for Institutional Advancement, says as the UFS begins to settle into a refined academic identity, the Department for Institutional Advancement intends to support these efforts by helping to facilitate the telling of a more integrated narrative to the university’s friends, prospects and donors.

 

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