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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS committed to transformation

2005-02-23

UFS committed to transformation

The management of the University of the Free State (UFS) takes note that plans are being made to stage a student protest at the UFS main campus on Monday 28 February 2005 .

This is in line with a concerted national campaign to highlight the issue of transformation at higher education institutions.

At this stage the UFS management has not received any application from student formations to stage such a protest at the main campus in Bloemfontein .

The UFS upholds the right of all staff and students to hold legal, non-violent protests and in this spirit encourages the student formations to apply for permission to hold their protest. However, the UFS management has been - and always will be willing to discuss the important issue of transformation of the UFS with staff unions and student formations.

Again the UFS management appeals to student formations to make use of this open door policy and not to adopt a confrontational position. In fact the management and the Senate of the UFS have come out in support of a new phase of transformation at the UFS.

In his speech at the official opening of the UFS earlier this month (on 4 February 2005 ), the Rector and Vice-Chancellor, Prof Frederick Fourie, announced that a comprehensive transformation plan for would be drafted for the UFS.

This Transformation Plan would address issues such as:

a new institutional culture for the UFS
the need for representivity in the staffing of the UFS
ensuring relevance of curricula for the South African and African context
enhancing excellence in the overall academic life of the UFS
ensuring greater interaction among black and white students and staff
addressing outstanding issues in the incorporation of the Qwaqwa and Vista campuses, among others

Concerning some of the issues that are being put forward to motivate for a protest march, the UFS would like to highlight the following facts:

The situation at the Qwaqwa campus

It is not true that the UFS has decided to close down the Qwaqwa campus. This is a complete falsehood. The campus was incorporated into the UFS in January 2003 and since then every effort is being made to ensure the viability of the Qwaqwa campus.
In fact the UFS has just upgraded residences at the Qwaqwa campus – to the tune of R6,8-million.
In addition, another R1,4-million has been set aside for the upgrading of other facilities on the Qwaqwa campus.
More staff has been appointed and the library is acquiring more books etc.
The management of the UFS wants to assure staff at the Qwaqwa campus once again that there has been no decision to close the campus.
We realise that the incorporation of the campus into the UFS has given rise to certain fears and concerns, but these are being addressed, including the question of reporting lines of staff and the further delegation of powers to the head of the Qwaqwa campus, Prof Peter Mbati.

The situation at the Vista campus

A number of processes are currently under way to address outstanding issues following the formal incorporation of the Vista campus into the UFS in January 2004.
This includes the integration of former Vista staff into the UFS as well as the alignment of the conditions of service of the former Vista staff with the UFS conditions of service.
Indeed, over the last few weeks, a climate of trust has been developing and a number of meetings have taken place in contrast to the situation that obtained at the end of 2004.
Just last week, the Rector reassured the Vista Task Team representing the former Vista staff that these staff members are indeed part of the UFS staff complement.
When the Vista campus was incorporated into the UFS, it was agreed that no new first years would be registered there, so as to avoid duplication with the main campus which is only a few kilometers away.
Instead, those students who were registered as Vista students at the time of incorporation (January 2004) would be allowed to complete their studies.
In terms of this agreement another process of consultation with key stakeholders on and off campus would be initiated to determine how the physical facilities of Vista could be used to contribute to educational and skills provision in the region and the province.
This process is still in its early stages and no final decision has been made regarding the long term strategic reconfiguration of the Vista campus.
In any case, as stated by the Rector, former Vista staff do not have to fear about their work security as this is not dependent on the future use of Vista campus – the two issues are not related.

Financial aid for students at the Qwaqwa campus

Concerning financial aid to students at Qwaqwa, the UFS has to date (that is up to 22 February 2005 ) made available R25 000 each to 705 students.
That amounts to R17,6 million.

Financial aid for students at the Vista campus

Concerning financial aid to students at Vista , the UFS has to date (that is up to 22 February 2005 ) made available R14 500 each to 104 students.
That amounts to R1,5 million.

Registration

The registration processes at both these campuses are not yet completed. So final figures are not yet available.
What we can say so far, is that 1339 students have registered at the Qwaqwa campus and that more are expected to register. At Vista , 545 students have registered so far, and more are expected to do so.
In an effort to assist students during the registration process, management has put in place a structure which is called the Monitoring Committee.
This Monitoring Committee provides counseling on courses of study but also sorts out problems relating to academic fees, etc.
This is how the UFS management in a concrete way gives expression to its commitment to broadening access for academically deserving students.

Alleged racism

There have recently been unsubstantiated allegations of racism leveled at the UFS.
We would like to state unequivocally, that the UFS does not and will not tolerate racism in any way.
There are policies and procedures in place to deal with such allegations and those who feel aggrieved should bring this to the attention of the Director of Diversity, Mr Billyboy Ramahlele.
The UFS also has sensitisation programmes for staff and students to assist in bringing about a truly non-racial, non-sexist, inclusive, multicultural and multilingual campus.

Conclusion

The UFS management remains committed to the further transformation of the institution so that it can play its role in supporting the goal of a non-racial, democratic South Africa united in its diversity.
We are committed to the successful incorporation of the Vista and Qwaqwa campuses and to the speedy resolution of all outstanding issues facing staff and students on these campuses.
We appeal once again to staff and students on these campuses, who are indeed members of the broader UFS community, to play a constructive role in the debate about the strategic direction of the UFS and all its campuses.

Issued by: Mr Anton Fisher

Director: Strategic Communication

Cell: 072-207-8334

Tel: 051-401-2749

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