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High risk that water demand in Gauteng will exceed available resources

08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons

DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht — Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water.

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

“This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa.

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop.

“To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

Working to prevent Day Zero

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen.

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Council votes on appointment of senior staff

2004-11-18

The Council of the University of the Free State (UFS) today voted on the filling of three senior vacancies, including one post at Dean level and two at the level of Vice-Dean.

The Council voted as follows:


Dr Natie Luyt will be offered the post of Dean: Student Affairs	Prof Engela Pretorius will be offered the post of Vice-Dean: Faculty of Humanities	Dr Choice Makhetha will be offered the post of Vice-Dean: Student Affairs

“There are special challenges for the UFS in the short and medium term regarding transformation of our residences, and a certain combination of management qualities and skills is desirable. As a result of the diversity of the UFS’s student community it is therefore important to us to follow a team approach to deal with the challenges. With the combination of Drs Luyt and Makhetha, I believe we will be able to manage student affairs effectively and skillfully,” says Prof Frederick Fourie, Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS.

“It is wonderful that we are able to celebrate the outcome of this process that has brought forward such excellent candidates who reflect our country’s diversity. It shows that we can achieve the goals of quality and diversity at the same time,” says Prof Fourie.

Prof Pretorius obtained all her qualifications (BA, BA (Hons) (cum laude), MA (cum laude) and D Phil) from the UFS, except for the Certificate in Gender Policy Management (cum laude) which she obtained in 2000 from WITS. She joined the Department of Sociology at UFS in 1980 and has headed the Department since 2001. She acted as Vice-Dean: Faculty of Humanities since July 2004. She has some thirty publications to her credit, published both nationally and internationally and has delivered 20 national and international papers. She is a member of the South African Sociological Association and is a member of the Council of the association and of the Editorial Board of Society in Transition, the society’s journal. She is also a member of the South African Academy for Science and Art and the Federation of African Women Educationalists in South Africa (FAWESA). Project involvement includes the Australian Women’s Executive Development Programme and the project Executive Development of Senior Women in South African Higher Education Institutions. She is also an NRF panelist.

Dr Luyt obtained his qualifications (BA, BA (Hons) (cum laude), MA (cum laude) and D Phil) at the UFS and started his career at the same institution in 1980 as lecturer in Political Science. He was promoted to senior lecturer in 1983 and appointed as Director: Student Affairs in 1997. He has been acting as Dean: Student Affairs since 2003. Dr Luyt completed several work-related training courses, among others a course in ethnic and multiculturality at the Swiss Institute for Federalism and a course in conflict management at the South Tyrolean Economic and Social Institute.

Dr Makheta also obtained all her qualifications (BA, BA (Hons), MA in Political Science and Ph D in Political Science) at the UFS and started working as a student assistant in Political Science at the same institution in 1999. She was promoted to junior assistant in 2000, coordinator and facilitator of Political Science in 2001, assistant/acting Director: Student Affairs in 2001 and acting Director: Student Affairs in 2003. Dr Makhetha is currently a Senior Political Analyst at the Department of Foreign Affairs.

The UFS Council also approved the promotion of nine professors to the rank of senior professor. They are Proff Louise Cilliers (Department English and Classical Languages), Dap Louw (Department of Psychology), Philip Nel (Department Afro-Asiatic Studies, Sign Language and Language Practice), Dirk van den Berg (Department of History of Art and Visual Culture Studies) Dingie van Rensburg (Director: Centre for Health Systems Research and Develoment), Andries Raath (Department of Constitutional Law and Philosophy of Law), James du Preez (Department of Microbial, Biochemical and Food Biotechnology), Johan Grobbelaar (Department of Plant Sciences) and Louis Scott (Department of Plant Sciences).

This is the first group ever of senior professors at the UFS. The post level was created to provide better career and earnings opportunities for high quality academics and to increase the attractiveness of an academic career to young people.

Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
E-mail: loaderl.stg@mail.uovs.ac.za

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