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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS satisfied with proceedings of EFF National People’s Assembly
2014-12-17

The University of the Free State (UFS) is happy about another successful hosting of a political party; this time, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). In the recent past (December 2012), the UFS hosted the African National Congress (ANC) with the same energy, support and selfless commitment as with the EFF.

“The fact that the EFF paid the required amount for the use of the university’s venues in full before the congress commenced, bears testimony to this. For the past two months, the UFS’s working team worked closely with the EFF’s logistics team to thoroughly plan for a smooth and successful National People’s Assembly,” says Dr Choice Makhetha, Acting Rector of the UFS.

The hard work and commitment invested in the preparation process paid off. The 1st EFF National People’s Assembly, held 13-16 December 2014 on the Bloemfontein Campus, was a huge success.

“It is with great excitement that I can report that all premises of the UFS have been left the way they were found on arrival; no damage to any property and no littering.”

“Thank you to the UFS staff members who worked selflessly on a daily basis: the cleaning staff who started very early in the morning and went home very late at night; garden staff who made sure that the grounds were exceptionally clean every day and the flowers bright; student volunteers who worked shifts of over 24 hours on the first day, making sure that EFF delegates were checked into residences; staff members at the Visitors Centre who were ready to share information about the university and provide support to EFF delegates; staff members at the Odeion (which served as media centre) who ensured that the national and international media houses were comfortable and that the media conferences ran smoothly; safety and security personnel who provided protection for all the people on campus and also ensuring safety of the buildings; the health and safety officers supported by our partners from ER24 emergency services; and the South African Police Services (SAPS). To the electricians, the plumbers and other colleagues from Physical Resources who assisted with any task, even beyond the call of duty, we say thank you. For all the support and extra miles travelled – we appreciate your passion for the work you do; you are all very important to us at the UFS.”

“As the University of the Free State, we would like to express our gratitude to the leadership of the EFF, the delegates, guests and partners, as well as the media houses. The level of discipline among delegates was impressive. The UFS staff members appreciate the level of professionalism and respect shown by the EFF leadership and delegates. All the best for the future!,” says Dr Makhetha.

The UFS will continue to host political parties, interest groups, associations and more in their diversity, provided there is availability of venues, events are held outside the academic period and payment is received well ahead of hosting. As a public institution of higher learning, the university has a responsibility to promote democracy and help deepen the principles thereof. A university is a perfect platform for differing views and diverse political formations to find expression.

“To the UFS community, thank you for the trust you showed in the working team as it prepared to host the EFF’s 1st National People’s Assembly. To Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality and the Free State Province – we appreciate the support. As the University of the Free State, we know we can always count on you!”, says Dr Makhetha.  

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