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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS launches history book
2007-02-02

 

Attending the launch of the UFS history book were, from the left: Prof Stef Coetzee, Prof Francois Retief, Prof Wynand Mouton, Mr Pieter Cox (Chairperson on Sasol) and Prof Frederick Fourie (Rector and Vice-Chancellor of the UFS). Profs Coetzee, Retief and Mouton are former rectors of the UFS.
UFS launches history book
 
The University of the Free State (UFS) today launched its history book titled, From Grey to Gold, on the Main Campus in Bloemfontein.
 
“The history of the UFS is one of faith, hope, struggle and determination. The book tells a fascinating story that stretches over a 100 years. It is divided into five main phases, which tells about the growth of the UFS from a poor Free State community to a mature university. Interesting stories about student days, sport, rag and hostel activities are included in each phase,” Prof Frederick Fourie, Rector and Vice-Chancellor said during the launch of the book.
 
“One cannot know where you are going if you don’t know where you are coming from. You have a clearer idea of the issues facing an institution if you know the history. A book like this one is also an important source of reference for staff on the campus,” said Prof Fourie.
 
The first research for the book was done from 1999-2003 by Prof Leo Barnard from the Department of History and a team of researchers. They also compiled the first manuscript. 
 
During the last three years, Prof Fourie was closely involved with the writing of the final phase and finishing off the history book project. “It was an honour to be so closely involved with the story of the UFS because now I have a better understanding of the institution, its people, its culture and its way of thinking. For any rector of a university, such an understanding of its institution is a requirement,” Prof Fourie said.
 
The book is partly sponsored by Sasol. During the launch of the book, Mr Pieter Cox, Chairperson of Sasol said the company and the UFS have been partners for 57 years. “Both Sasol and the UFS are striving for excellence – Sasol for excellence in technology and the UFS for excellence in education,” said Mr Cox. 
 
“It was an easy decision when the UFS approached Sasol for financial support of the history book. Its a formidable piece of work, something Prof Fourie and the UFS can be proud of,” said Mr Cox.
 
The book consists of more than 500 pages with hundreds of photos and a wide range of supplements of office-bearers, awards and achievements (including national and sporting colours). A timeline framework, putting the history of the UFS in context with the history of the Free State, South Africa and of the world, is also included.
 
Besides the supplements, the history book also tells the story of amongst others the establishment of the UFS; the role of its founding fathers; black pioneers of transformation; the establishment and development of academic departments and faculties; student numbers; pioneers and trends in research; academic entrepreneurs; campus issues and campus politics; interesting facts and stories about student life (rag, intervarsity and cheerleaders, sport and the Springboks, hostel traditions); the admission of black students and anguish about race; language and culture; the development of the Main Campus; the Tickey and the Banana and much more.
 
Emphasis is placed on a very high level of quality. “It is not every day that the university becomes hundred years old and the institution will be measured by the quality of the book. We cannot say the UFS is a university of excellence if the book does not reflect that,” Ms Edma Pelzer, Director: Physical Resources and Special Projects said. Ms Pelzer managed the project as part of the last mentioned part of her portfolio.
 
The search for photographs was an important aspect of the book and it was a big task to find photographs and write captions. It took almost a year to translate and prepare the English edition and almost ten months to ensure the accuracy thereof, especially to correctly translate the typical Free State and UFS terminology and naturally to complete the English manuscript’s layout and proofreading. In the mean time the cover pages were designed and in September 2006 the manuscript went into the final print process. The Afrikaans title is: Van Sink tot Sandsteen tot Graniet.  
 
The cost of the book is R380 per copy. Those who already ordered the book will soon receive their copy. Orders can be placed by contacting Mr Dawid Kriel at UFS Marketing on 051 401 3409 or on the UFS web site at www.ufs.ac.za. The book is also available at Van Schaik Book Store on the Thakaneng Bridge, UFS Main Campus and at Fascination Books in Mimosa Mall, Bloemfontein.
 
Media release
Issued by: Lacea Loader
Media Representative
Tel: (051) 401-2584
Cell: 083 645 2454
2 February 2007

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