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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Prof. Letticia Moja a winner in her category
2004-08-17

 

Prof. Moja a finalist in award 
'Every member of staff is important to me'

Michelle Cahill - Bloemnuus

IF you are in need of a dose of inspiration, try and get an appointment with Prof. Letticia Moja, the Dean of the Faculty of Health Science at the University of the Free State. It will not be easy as she has an extremely tight schedule, over and above being a finalist in the 2004 Shoprite/Checkers Woman of the Year competition.

 

Although not a born and bred Free Stater, this dynamic woman has come to love the Free State. "Once you get past the mindset of a small town and all the negatives surrounding it, it is an absolutely wonderful experience," Moja said.

Moja was born in Pretoria and grew up in Garankuwa as the second eldest of five children. "That was nothing special. I was not the eldest and I wasn't the youngest," she quipped. She had two younger brothers, one of whom died in a car accident and then two sisters.

She went to school in Pretoria and her first contact with the Free State was when she wrote her matric at Moroka High School in Thaba Nchu. "That was one of the best schools for us at that time," she says. After completing matric, she went on to study medicine in KwaZulu-Natal.

In 1982 she returned "home" and completed her internship at the Garankuwa Hospital. Hereafter she specialised in gynaecological obstetrics at Medunsa.

She became the head of the gynaecological obstetrics unit and later opened a branch in Pietersburg.

"This was just about the most heart-rending time of my life. You saw people travelling for up to three days just to see a doctor," she says. "Here we really interacted with the community."

In 2001 she was invited by the University of the Free State to apply for the job of vice-dean of the Faculty of Health Science. "I wasn't too keen," she says, "but they kept on calling to find out if I had applied or not," she says with a smile. "Eventually I gave in and was appointed."

She thought she would work a couple of years under Prof. Kerneels Nel, then the dean of the faculty. "Unfortunately that was not to be. I had hoped that I could learn from him," Moja says.

Prof. Nel died of a heart attack in 2003 after which Moja deputised for him before being appointed as dean.

"This brought along a whole newset of challenges," she says, "Now I have to work out budgets and I need to know what human resources are," she jokes. This has prompted her to take up her studies again and she is currently doing her MBA.

"It has certainly been a challenge to go into management and without my support structure I most certainly wouldn't have been able to do it," Moja says.

Moja is actively involved in her church and serves on various committees including the Health Professional Council where she is acting president of the Medical and Dental Board and the Provincial Aids Council.

To her no job is menial. She recalls when she used to have "high tea" with her staff in Gauteng and Limpopo. "One of the cleaning ladies used to think her job was menial. That is just not so. No hospital can do without even the lowest position. Imagine stepping over rubbish while you're trying to catch a baby. To me everybody is important no matter what you do. "

Moja's eldest daughter is studying for her B.Accounting degree at Wits . Her youngest daughter is in Gr. 9 at Eunice and she has also brought along her niece, who is in Gr. 8 at Eunice. "You see, we need to be three girls in the house."
She feels honoured to have been nominated by the institution especially as it is traditionally male-dominated. "It is not about me, but about the support structure. Nobody can do it on their own. It is a team effort."
BLOEMNUUS - VRYDAG 9 JULIE 2004

 

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