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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

School of Medicine expands to provide quality tuition
2015-04-20

 

The School of Medicine at the University of the Free State (UFS) has recently extended various training platforms to provide continuous quality tuition to students.

Not only does the school boast a world-class dissection hall but now has plans for additional training facilities at two more hospitals.

The new dissection hall was completed in January 2015 with some final finishing touches that will be done shortly. The hall is newly built as the previous dissection hall has been used for undergraduate anatomy training since 1972.

Dr Sanet van Zyl, Senior Lecturer in the Department of Basic Medical Science, says owing to a prospective growth in the number of medical students as well as changing methods in teaching and learning, the need for a new dissection hall became evident to ensure that students get an optimal learning experience during dissection tuition.

“The new spacious dissection hall is equipped with special lighting and modern equipment for the training programme for second-year medical students. The hall is further equipped with modern sound and computer equipment. A unique camera system will allow students to follow dissection demonstrations on ten screens in the hall. Dissection demonstrations can also be recorded, enabling lecturers to put together new materials for teaching and learning.”

In addition to anatomy teaching for under- and postgraduate medical students, the Department of Basic Medical Science also offers anatomy teaching to under-graduate students from the School of Nursing, the School of Allied Health Professions as well as students from the Natural and Agricultural Sciences (such as students studying Forensic Science). The old dissection hall will still be used for the anatomy training of these students.

“The dissection programme for medical students is of critical importance, not only to acquire anatomical knowledge, but also for the development of critical skills and professionalism of our students. As already mentioned, these modern facilities will enable us to be at the forefront of current development in this field. This will benefit both present and future generations of medical students.”

At the same time, Prof Alan St. Clair Gibson, Head of the School of Medicine, announced that lecturing facilities are being developed at the Kimberley Hospital Complex. There are also plans for study facilities at the UFS’s Qwaqwa Campus and Bongani Hospital in Welkom. The UFS’s planning is also well underway for lecturing and residential facilities for students in Trompsburg, where students will receive training at the Trompsburg Hospital.

“We are very privileged to have these facilities and they will help us to provide world class training for students in the School of Medicine,” Prof St. Clair Gibson says.

 

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