Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items
Previous Archive
08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS enhances Geography in schools
2015-05-11

The Green Box

The Department of Geography at the University of the Free State (UFS), in association with the Society of South African Geographers (SSAG), is doing their part in providing curriculum support to schools. Dr Ruth Massey and Anneri Pretorius are the project managers of Green Box, an initiative to advance Geography in schools.

The Green Box supports the intermediate phase of schooling (Grades 4, 5, 6). According to Dr Massey, the worksheets and activities provided in the Green Box are aligned with the Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statements (CAPS) and the new curriculum. “These worksheets are divided into three themes: map work, physical Geography, and human Geography.

“Map work includes symbols and keys, grid references, and compass work whilst physical Geography focuses on water and waste, biodiversity and conservation, and weather and climate issues. The human Geography theme has a focus on population, rural and urban development, migration, food and farming, and transport and trade,” she said.

Each worksheet has a fact sheet section which teaches theory on the specific topic (linked to the curriculum), an activity section (all resources needed for these activities are provided in the box), and a ‘take it home’ section for further learning and practice at home.

The Green Box is a recycled plastic crate that comprises worksheets, training materials, visual aids, and resources for teaching, learning, and active engagement in Geography classes.

Also included in the box are a felt story board and characters (that link with the worksheet activities), the ‘Climate Change memory game’ (which enhances learner’s memory capabilities and teaches various climate change facts) and the ‘Sustainable Development puzzle game’ (which teaches about the social, biophysical, economic, and political elements of Sustainable Development, and how they overlap).

“All items in the box are locally sourced, robust, and without copyright,” said Dr Massey.

The project is focusing on 10 under-resourced schools in the Bloemfontein area. Each school has received three boxes (one for each grade of the Intermediate Phase).

Dr Massey said: “This box is to be shared among the teachers. The Green Boxes were distributed at a training and information workshop held at three central schools in the various districts. These workshops introduced the teachers to the contents of their box, and provided basic training on the worksheets and the activities provided.”

“The schools will be joined up with ‘Box Buddies’ at more resourced schools in Bloemfontein. These buddy schools will assist in support and in replenishing the box’s stationery, etc. when needed.”

“Monitoring and evaluation will take place for six months after the boxes have been distributed. This will ensure support to, and the sustainability of, the project.” The Green Box project was made possible through a grant from the Society of South African Geographers (SSAG).

We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept