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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

UFS keeps the power on
2015-06-24

 

At a recent Emergency Power Indaba held on the Bloemfontein Campus, support structures at the university met to discuss the Business Continuity Intervention Plan to manage load shedding on the three campuses of the UFS.

Currently, 35 generators serving 55 of the buildings have already been installed as a back-up power supply on the three campuses of the university. According to Anton Calitz, Electrical Engineer at the UFS, the running cost to produce a kWh of electricity with a diesel generator amounts to approximately three times the cost at which the UFS buys electricity from Centlec.

Planned additional generators will attract in excess of R4 million in operating costs per year. For 2015, the UFS senior leadership approved R11 million, spread over the three campuses. Remaining requirements will be spread out over the next three years. University Estates is also looking at renewable energy sources.

On the Bloemfontein Campus, 26 generators serving forty-one buildings are in operation. On South Campus, two generators were installed at the new Education Building and at the ICT Server Room. Lecture halls, the Arena, the Administration Building, and the library will be added later in 2015. Eight generators serving 12 buildings are in operation on the Qwaqwa Campus. In 2015, the Humanities Building, Lecture Halls and the heat pump room will also be equipped with generators.

Most buildings will be supplied only with partial emergency power. In rare cases, entire buildings will be supplied because the cost of connecting is lower than re-wiring for partial demand. According to Nico Janse van Rensburg, Senior Director at University Estates, emergency power will be limited to lighting and power points only. No allowances will be made for air-conditioning.

“Most area lighting will also be connected to emergency power,” he said.

Where spare capacity is available on existing emergency power generators, requests received for additional connections will be added, where possible, within the guidelines. The following spaces will receive preference:
- Lecture halls with the lights, data projectors, and computers running
- Laboratories for practical academic work and sensitive research projects
- Academic research equipment that is sensitive to interruptions
- Buildings hosting regular events

According to Janse van Rensburg, all further needs will be investigated. Staff can forward all emergency power supply needs to Anton Calitz at calitzja@ufs.ac.za

Staff and students can also manage load shedding in the following ways:

1. Carry a small torch with you at all times, in case you are on a stairwell or other dark area when the lights go out. You can also use the flashlight app on your phone. Download it before any load shedding occurs. This can come in handy if the lights go out suddenly, and you cannot find a flashlight. Load-shedding after dark imposes even more pressure on our Campus Security staff. We can assist them with our vigilance and preparedness by carrying portable lights with us at all times and by assisting colleagues.
2. Candles pose a serious safety risk. Rather use battery- or solar-powered lights during load shedding.
3. Ensure that your vehicle always has fuel in the tank, because petrol stations cannot pump fuel during power outages.
4. Ensure that you have enough cash, because ATMs cannot operate without electricity.
5. The UFS Sasol Library has study venues available which students can use during load shedding.
6. When arranging events which are highly dependent on power supply, especially at night, organisers should consult the load-shedding schedule before determining dates and preferably also make back-up arrangements. If generators are a necessity, the financial impact should be taken into consideration.

The senior leadership also approved a list of buildings to be equipped with emergency power supplies.

More about load shedding at the UFS:
Getting out of the dark
More information, guidelines and contact information

 

 

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