Latest News Archive

Please select Category, Year, and then Month to display items
Previous Archive
08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

Professor Antjie Krog to deliver public lecture at UFS Bloemfontein Campus
2015-06-19

Professor Antjie Krog – illustrious author, poet, and academic – will deliver a public lecture at the University of the Free State’s (UFS) Bloemfontein Campus. The topic of her discussion will be ‘They Couldn’t Achieve their Goal with Me: Narrating Rape during the South African War’.

Prof Krog’s lecture will be the third instalment of the Vice-Chancellor’s Lecture Series on Trauma, Memory and Representations of the Past. The lecture series is hosted by Prof Pumla Gobodo-Madikizela, Senior Research Professor in Trauma, Forgiveness, and Reconciliation Studies at the UFS, as part of a five-year research project funded by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.

Details of the event:

Date: Tuesday 23 June 2015
Time: 12:00
Venue: Albert Wessels Auditorium, UFS Bloemfontein Campus
Members of the public are welcome to attend
RSVP to Jo-Anne Naidoo: NaidooJA@ufs.ac.za

Acts of rape during South African War

To set the context of her lecture, Prof Krog explains that, about two months before the South African War officially ended on 31 May 1902, affidavits were taken from women about transgressions experienced at the hands of British soldiers. These acts included plunder, killing of stock, abduction, sexual assault, and rape. Her lecture is the first scholarly focus in terms of narrative and agency on the affidavits of 24 incidents of sexual assaults and rape since the 25-year embargo on these documents was lifted in 1982. The shelving of these affidavits is indicative of how even transcultural multiple processes failed to create an honest discourse in post-colonial South Africa about sexual violence.

Paving the way to healing historical wounds

The series focuses on the portrayal of trauma and memory in multiple ways – such as the narrative arts represented by Prof Krog. These forms of expression may ultimately pave the way to healing historical wounds.

“This topic is very timely, given a recent NRF grant we’ve been awarded for research on transgenerational trauma related to the South African war,” Prof Gobodo-Madikizela says in anticipation of the lecture.

Previous instalments of Vice-Chancellor’s Lecture Series

The first instalment of the Vice-Chancellor’s Lecture Series on Trauma, Memory and Representations of the Past was delivered by former Constitutional Court Judge, Albie Sachs, in which he discussed ‘Sites of memory, sites of conscience’. Internationally acclaimed composer and sound artist, Philip Miller, delivered the second lecture, ‘Disrupting the Silence: The Past and Transnational Memory’.


We use cookies to make interactions with our websites and services easy and meaningful. To better understand how they are used, read more about the UFS cookie policy. By continuing to use this site you are giving us your consent to do this.

Accept