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08 April 2025 | Story Andre Damons | Photo Andre Damons
DrSophie-Biskop_ProfFrancois-Engelbrecht
Dr Sophie Biskop from the Department of Geography at the Schiller University Jena, Germany, and Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, at the Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC).

The severe El Niño drought of 2015/16, which culminated in the Vaal dam reaching an alarming low water level (~25%), prompted scientists to try and predict whether climate change could bring a drought so severe and long lasting that Gauteng could run out of water. 

Prof Francois Engelbrecht, a Professor of Climatology at the Global Change Institute (GCI), University of the Witwatersrand, is one of the scientists working on this project and says though they cannot predict a Day Zero drought with certainty, he thinks it is possible that Gauteng might run out of water in the 2030s or 2040s.

 “This is the biggest climate change risk South Africa faces”, he said.  

Prof Engelbrecht and Dr Sophie Biskop from the Institute of Geography at the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany, together with other scientists are working on a project involving hydrological modelling to predict and prevent a Day Zero from happening. Dr Biskop presented their research paper titled ‘Projected hydrological futures of South Africa's mega-dam region’ at the second Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC2025) in March, indicating there is a high risk that the water demand in Gauteng will exceed available water resources within the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) under future climate change.

 

Gauteng may be severely compromised

The IVRS, a large, complex water system comprising water resources of different river basins, and several mega-dams within, has been constructed to secure the water supply of the Gauteng province, the economic hub in South Africa. 

According to the researchers, Southern Africa is a water-stress hot spot and is projected to become significantly warmer and likely also drier under global climate change, increasing the risk of devastating hydrological droughts. The IVRS, Dr Biskop told the attendees, is vulnerable to the occurrence of multi-year droughts as experienced between 2012 and in 2016. The alarming low water level of the Vaal dam after a period of drought of 2015/16 provided early warning that water security of Gauteng may be directly and severely compromised in a changing climate. Potential evapotranspiration will increase as a consequence of strong regional warming.

 

Answering questions

“There is consequently a high risk that the water demand in the Gauteng province will exceed available water resources within the IVRS under future climate change. This raises the question if under ongoing climate change the natural hydrological system (without considering water transfers between dam catchments) can maintain dam levels in South Africa’s eastern mega-dam region, and particularly within the Lesotho Highlands,” explained Dr Biskop. 

 “To answer this question, the aim of our study is to quantify future water balance changes of several dams under changing climate conditions using the Jena Adaptable Modelling System (JAMS), a software framework for component-based development of environmental models. For this purpose, we build process-based hydrological models for several dam catchments.”

She said an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change projections is subsequently used as forcing, to generate future hydrological projections. The analysis of projected changes in hydrological system components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, run-off) provides probabilistic estimates of the occurrence of a regional climate change tipping point - when the natural water supply can no longer achieve the full storage capacity of the mega-dams which supply the Gauteng region.

 

Working to prevent Day Zero 

According to Prof Engelbrecht, they are working with the City of Johannesburg, the National Department of Water and Sanitation and Rand Water on this project. Their hope for this research is to create awareness in order to try and prevent Day Zero from happening. They also hope to assist these role players in building resilience and help them prepare for Day Zero. Their work with the City of Johannesburg also includes helping the city to reduce water wastage and change water users’ behaviour as well as formulating a disaster management plan should Day Zero happen. 

The Southern African Mountain Conference (SAMC) series is unique as it seeks to integrate science, policy and practitioner sectors for sustainable interventions in southern African mountains. SAMC events are conceptualised by the Afromontane Research Unit (ARU) of the University of the Free State (UFS), the African Mountain Research Foundation (AMRF) and Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS), a joint initiative between Eurac Research and the UNU Institute for Environment and Human Security. These three organisations form the Primary Partners, with the SAMC series being implemented by The Peaks Foundation (a non-profit company). SAMC2025 is being held under the patronage of UNESCO.

News Archive

School of Medicine – heartbeat of the UFS
2015-06-24

Photo: Charl Devenish

During the past year, the School of Medicine at the University of the Free State celebrated several successes in the field of research and cooperation agreements. These successes allow the school to continue delivering world-class teaching to some of the country’s top students.

Earlier this year, a research team from the Department of Medical Microbiology under the guidance of Prof Felicity Burt, received a grant of R500 000 to conduct research on Congo fever (CCHF). Prof Burt is an internationally-recognised expert on Congo fever. The funding that has been awarded will be used to profile immune responses against CCHF viral proteins, and investigate mechanisms and strategies to enhance these immune responses. This study may contribute to the development of a vaccine against this deadly virus.

Prof Stephen Brown from the Department of Paediatrics and Child Health’s expertise and commitment to paediatric cardiology gained him the title of Bloemfonteiner of the Year. Under the leadership of Prof Brown, the department has performed many breakthrough operations and procedures. The most recent of these, was the first hybrid procedure in the country which was performed in November 2014. The department also has an ultramodern hybrid heart catheterisation suite.
 
Prof William Rae from the Department of Medical Physics focuses on medically-applied radiation. Together with his department, they are looking at quantitative radiation dosages. The research is particularly crucial for the successful treatment of cancers. Through this research, it is possible to ensure that patients receive the appropriate radiation dosages in order to obtain the desired effect without the patient being affected negatively.

Dr Nathanial Mofolo, Head of the Department of Family Medicine in the School of Medicine, is since 2006 involved at various levels of hospital management regarding quality assurance, patient safety, clinical and infection management, as well as administration. He is currently curator of internal medical students for four of the UFS’s teaching hospitals. His department is currently focusing on the National Health Plan, HIV and tuberculosis, teaching and learning, as well as service delivery in family medicine.
 
Prof Francis Smit manages the team that, to their knowledge, decellularised the first primate heart. The method has been applied successfully on rat and pig hearts by researchers in America. Recently the team also successfully cultivated beating heart cells ? those of a rat ? in their laboratories. The research is in line with what researchers in Europe and America are working on. In the long run, the research project aims to attempt ‘building’ a heart that could be used for the purposes of organ donation.

The UFS is also home to the only metabolic research unit in the country. The unit was established to focus research on obesity, type II diabetes, metabolic bone diseases and all related diseases. This includes diseases such as diabetes, cholesterol, cancer, psoriasis, lymphoedema, fatigue, high blood pressure, gout, arthritis, fibrosis, skin disorders, PMT, migraine, insomnia, gall and kidney stones and related infections, and obstructive sleep apnea. The unit is a joint initiative between the UFS and Christo Strydom Nutrition. Mr Christo Strydom, a nutritionist and world renowned in the treatment of lymphoedema, invested R5 million in the establishment of this unit at the UFS.  Christo Strydom is also the founder and owner of Christo Strydom Nutrition.

The School of Medicine at the University of the Free State is the only unit on the continent offering in-depth modules in clinical simulation. The Clinical Simulation Unit on the Bloemfontein Campus of the UFS, headed by Dr Mathys Labuschagne, is regarded as the flagship unit of the school and boasts high-technology equipment where students can practice their clinical skills before applying those skills in the real world.
 

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